Dollar pulls back & metals take the lead

The market is doing exactly what strong trends do: rotating, not breaking.

The dollar is cooling after a failed breakout, while metals are pressing higher into fresh upside territory. This is not chaos. It’s a clean, technical continuation with momentum on the bulls’ side. 

USD Index (DX.F): Bears stepped in as expected 

Let’s open today’s Lab Note by revisiting Friday’s Free Lab Note:

“(…) next resistance area created by the upper border of the rising black channel, the 50% retracement of the entire decline that started in late November and the 78.6% retracement of the full December drop. 

So far, bulls have tried twice to push through this zone and twice sellers stepped in, especially around the 99.00 area, keeping price capped. 

At the same time, momentum indicators have moved into overbought territory, increasing the risk of sell signals appearing soon. When overbought conditions align with strong resistance, it often warns that a short-term reversal and pullback may be close. 

If sellers regain control and close the day under the upper line of the channel, their first downside target will likely be the previously broken area around 98.53. A clean break below that level could expose 98.26, and potentially even a move toward the lower border of the mentioned channel. (…)”

From today’s perspective, we can clearly see that the dollar index played out exactly as expected after Friday’s note. Price failed to hold above the previously broken resistance zone, invalidating the earlier breakout, and rolled over straight into our first downside target. 

As you see on the above chart, momentum indicators remain firmly bearish, which, in combination with the drop back below the previously broken important zone, tells us one thing: Friday’s bearish roadmap remains also valid today, and further downside pressure is still on the table.

Gold (GC.F): Breakout confirmed, bulls stay in charge

Before we dive into the charts, let’s revisit Thursday’s quote (Premium Lab Note #63):

“(…) Bullish scenario:

If buyers reclaim yesterday’s breakdown and push price back above the lower border of the orange consolidation (marked on H4), and that move is confirmed, the path toward a retest of yesterday’s high and the 4518-4530 resistance zone (78.6% Fibonacci + upper border of the green rising channel) will likely be open. (…)”

On Friday (Premium Lab Note #65) , we added:

„Yesterday’s bullish roadmaps remain fully valid and the upside target zones now matter a lot. This is where bulls must prove strength: clean closes above the marked levels would open the door for a renewed push toward the recent highs (or even higher).” 

From today’s point of view, we see that gold did exactly what we outlined. Bulls stepped in, pushed price cleanly above the resistance zone described on Thursday, and unlocked the upside scenario.

As a result, the yellow metal printed a new high, right on schedule. When we take a closer look at the charts, we see something even more important… there are no sell signals coming from the indicators at this stage, which keeps the bullish structure intact.

Therefore, further improvement should not surprise us. If this is the case, here are the next upside levels to watch: 

•             4662-4670 →127.2% Fibonacci extension + minimum measured move from the rising wedge

•             (…) Further upside targets are covered in the Premium Lab Notes.

Silver (SI.F): Momentum Expansion After Consolidation (the complete silver analysis for today is reserved for Premium Lab Notes).

Lab Takeaway for Today

This is a classic trend-continuation environment. 

USD: the move is still corrective unless the dollar breaks above the back channel. 

Gold & Silver: bullish scenarios remain fully intact. Trends are still bullish across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. 

Stay sharp, stay tactical.