Dollar Index – Market Crash Road Map – Full Elliott Wave Cycle

Dollar Index finalized in Jan 2017 an entire Primary ABC (blue) Structure, thus completing Cycle Wave A (black).

I detected a possbile Pattern which has good chances of materializing into a Market Crash.
It’s not going to happen tomorrow or very soon, however the Pattern is real and I am keeping my “hawk eyes” open.

Cycle Wave B (black) has been unfolding since then with an aggressive Down-Trend which, in Elliott Wave labeling, can only be treated as an Impulse.
Because of the fact that the recent Down-Trend unfolded in fast and deep manner, the Impulse could be labeled as a 3^rd Minor (red) Wave within the larger degree Intermediate (C) (turquoise).

Therefore, I am suspecting Dollar Index to possibly start a Complex Corrective Structure on the Up-Side which would get its head above water around the 96-97 Levels.

Dollar Index – Weekly Chart:

Dollar Index – Long-Term Wave Count – Cycle Wave A (black):

• Primary A (blue) unfolded with a 3 Wave Bullish Sequence in its Intermediates (ABC) (turquoise). This happened during the 2008 Recession.

• Primary B (blue) unfolded as a Zig-Zag in its Intermediates (ABC) (red), retracing overall almost the entire moves that Primary A (blue) has gained.

• Primary C (blue) unfolded with typical 5 Swings Sequence, with a Running Flat Structure in Intermediate (2) (green) and an Expanded Flat in the Complex Corrective Structure within Intermediate (4) (green).

• Intermediate (5) (green) ended its Bullish run during Trump’s Presidential Election.
  That was that! We have a full Cycle, I am no no longer looking up for the Dollar Index.

With Intermediate (5) (green) ending, we could also consider that Primary C (blue) and Cycle Wave A (black) have also ended.
A very valid reason for this belief would be the fact that Primary C (blue) could be seen ending at the 150-161.8% Fibonacci Extensions of Primary Waves A & B (blue).

What does the ending of a Cycle mean? Now what?

Well, this would mean that the way would be paved for some more “shocks” in the Market which usually happens after a Market Shift in Trends Reversals.
After the recent fall in the Dollar Index we finally saw a bounce off the Aug 2015 & May 2016 lows. That was not a coincidence in my personal view, as those Levels pose as Significant Supports.
I am seeing this Support as the end of Minor 3 (red) and the possible start of a Complex Corrective Structure which would be formed out of 3 Swings.
I will be looking at the Structures closely and mark my updates accordingly but for now what I can say is that typically, I would expect a Head and Shoulders Pattern in the ABC Primary (blue) Waves.

Dollar Index – Daily Chart:

Dollar Index – Medium-Term Wave Count – Intermediate (C) (turquoise):

• Intermediate (A) (turquoise) unfolded with 3 Swings Sequence in its Minors ABC (red) highlighting an Ending Diagonal in Minor C (red).

• Intermediate (B) (turquoise) unfolded with a Complex WXY (orange) Structure, correcting 61.8% of Intermediate (A) (turquoise).

• Intermediate (C) (turquoise) is in the spotlight and still unfolding, showing a clear Extension in its Minor 5 Waves Sequence.

Fibonacci Projections & Speculation:

• Intermediate (C) (turquoise) is expected to end its Minor Waves (red) at or around the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracements of Cycle Wave A (black).
  With Intermediate (C) (turquoise), so would Primary A (blue) find its end at or around the 241.40% Fibonacci Extensions of Intermediates A & B (turquoise).

• Minor 4 (red) is expected to unfold with 3 Swings Sequence (Minute ABC) and reach towards the Golden Section (PHI – ϕ), which is also a Vibration Zone and a Point of Interest.

• Minor 5 (red) is expected to find bottom at the 300% Fibonacci Extensions of Minors 1 & 2 (red).

Dollar Index – 4H Chart:

Short-Term wise I would expect a Bullish Swing for Dollar Index and Medium-Term wise I would expect further weakness before a Long-Term Recovery.

* The above Analysis does not act as a direct investment advice and should be treated as market commentary.

Many pips ahead!
RT