Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish spending data up to and including 6 July shows signs of improvement in a number of categories. Some of this is due to payday effects, which lifted the total spending level around 1 July but a number of the subcomponents where we saw weakness in late June seem to be looking stronger over the past week as well.
Through most of June, we saw a decline in spending in clothing and shoe stores but over the past week, both categories returned to more normal spending levels. Note that we observe the effects only on nominal spending and lower prices than normal in June might have had an effect on spending. However, we saw an uptick in spending in cosmetic and jewellery stores, indicating good activity in shopping centres recently.
Spending in the overall restaurant category has come down in recent weeks. However, this is due to very weak spending in the bars and nightclubs subcategory, which fell to only 25% of the normal level in the early summer holiday season, while spending in traditional restaurants is now back at normal levels.
We are still to see a significant uptick in travel and airline spending. This is somewhat surprising, as the borders have now been open for a few weeks, indicating that it is more than formal restrictions driving travel patterns.
Changing holiday patterns are likely to affect spending over the coming month, as we believe Danes are likely to vacation differently, spending their holidays at home rather than abroad. Though spending is at a more normal level, we are still not seeing an improvement large enough to compensate for the reduction in spending under lockdown.
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