Global markets are trading cautiously on Friday as investors await key US inflation data

Market overview

Global markets are trading cautiously on Friday as investors await key U.S. inflation data (CPI) and PMI reports from major economies, both expected to shape the market’s direction ahead of the weekend.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is steady around the 99.00 level after modest gains this week, supported by higher Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep the door open for rate cuts in upcoming meetings.
Meanwhile, U.S. equities remain slightly positive, buoyed by easing bond yields and optimism over potential improvements in both manufacturing and services activity.

Gold (XAU/USD)

Fundamentals:

Gold is trading near $4,080 per ounce after a mild pullback earlier today, reflecting a balance between global slowdown fears and Fed rate-cut bets. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could lift the dollar and pressure gold, while softer data may revive upside momentum.
Technical Outlook:
The metal remains range-bound between $4,050 and $4,130.
A breakout above $4,130 may open the door toward $4,200, while a drop below $4,050 could trigger a move down to $4,000–$3,980.
Overall bias remains bullish as long as prices hold above the $3,950–$3,980 demand zone.

Crude Oil (WTI)

Fundamentals:

WTI crude steadied near $61.50 per barrel after a sharp 7% rally earlier this week, supported by Washington’s sanctions on two Russian firms, which renewed supply concerns.
However, a U.S. inventory build of 3.524 million barrels limited further gains.

Technical Outlook:

The price is testing key resistance at $62.00; a breakout could extend the rally to $63.20–$64.00.
A pullback below $60.50 might lead toward $59.20.
Short-term trend remains bullish, though momentum appears to be fading.

EUR/USD

Fundamentals:

The pair continues to consolidate around 1.1600 ahead of Eurozone PMI and U.S. CPI releases.
Weak European growth prospects keep the euro under pressure, while the dollar remains supported by tighter Fed policy expectations.

Technical Outlook:

Resistance is seen near 1.1650, with key support at 1.1550.
A break below support could expose 1.1480, while a move above resistance targets 1.1720.
Overall trend remains bearish below 1.1700.

GBP/USD

Fundamentals:

The pound saw mild recovery above 1.3300 following upbeat UK retail sales data (+0.5%), yet momentum remains weak amid sluggish growth signals.
Technical Outlook:
The pair trades within a descending channel, with resistance at 1.3370 and support at 1.3250.
A breakout may lift prices to 1.3450, while a break below support could trigger a drop toward 1.3180.

USD/JPY

Fundamentals:

The pair extended gains near 153.00, driven by widening U.S.-Japan yield spreads after Japan’s inflation rose to 2.9% YoY.
However, the yen’s weakness reflects the Bank of Japan’s continued ultra-loose stance despite inflationary pressures.
Technical Outlook:
The trend remains strongly bullish with support at 152.30 and resistance at 153.50.
A breakout may lead to 154.20, while a dip below support could trigger a correction toward 151.80.

Overall summary

Markets are entering a pivotal phase ahead of U.S. inflation data, which will likely dictate the dollar’s near-term trajectory.

Stronger data: supports the dollar and weighs on gold and the euro.

Weaker data: favors safe-haven assets like gold and reinforces Fed rate-cut expectations.
Overall sentiment today remains cautious, with traders awaiting the next move from Washington.