Currencies and metals rally big time

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Our StL U. Billikens won their game on Friday evening by a wide margin and moved to 19-1 so far this year... They are on a roll! Back home, they got hammered with icy cold temps and lots of snow this past weekend, and the snow hasn't stopped! I'm so glad to be in the far South of Florida right now... We had mid 70's and sun this past weekend, quite the difference of what they had back home. The great Wilson Pickett greets me this morning with his song: 634-5789... He was "something" to watch and hear perform back in the 60's... I'm just saying.

Well, GDP was revised upward and the dollar got sent down the river for sale... Wait, What? Yes, the "opposites" that we've experienced in the markets for some time now, came to a head on Friday with the BBDXY losing nearly 9 index points and ended the week at 1,192... The dollar hasn't been this low since 2022, and this time looks like it's going to go much lower... The euro has inched close to the 1.18 handle, and the rest of the currencies are all following the Big Dog euro, down the street to chase the dollar.

This came through from Kitvco.com : "The private sector is following the trend set by central banks by diversifying into gold, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its year-end gold price target by more than 10%.

Just weeks after setting a year-end target of $4,900 per ounce, the banking giant announced on Wednesday that it was raising its December 2026 price target to $5,400 an ounce. "

Chuck Again... Well, you know what I always contend, right? That whatever LOLA wants, LOLA gets... For new readers LOLA is what I've dubbed Goldman Sachs.

I always turn to Ed Steer to tell me what's going in with the SPTs... he had this to say regarding the shorts in Silver: "BlackRock issued a warning five or so years ago to all those short SLV that there might come a time when there wouldn't be enough metal for them to cover. That would only be true if JPMorgan decides not to supply it to whatever entity requires it. However, we appear to be far beyond that point now, as the short position in SLV will never be covered through the deposit of physical silver, as it just doesn't exit -- and never will. And if it does exist, it will only be available at a price far higher than what's being quoted in the public domain now. Those short SLV shares are in equal dire straits as those short silver in the COMEX futures market -- and I suspect that they're the same entities."

It's always interesting in the metals... This guy says this, and that guy says that, and lots of guys are in the middle saying something else... Everybody has a position to trade, if you ask me... And that's why they come out and say what they say... For instance, LOLA says Gold will reach $5,400 in 2026... They must be very long Gold and need to sell it... So, always take what I provide you in comments about the metals with however many grains of salt that you wish.

The price of Oil bumped higher again on Friday, and ended the week with a $61 handle... Things are getting interesting in Oil, and we need to keep an eye on it... I only see out of one eye, so that should be easy for me!

The yield in the 10-year Treasury saw a lot of Fed yield control late last week, and its yield ended the week with a 4.23% yield. The yield in the 10-year would be much higher if the Fed Heads would leave it alone, but they know better, right? NOT! They are a bunch of knuckleheads and don't every think otherwise! 

In the overnight markets last night... Well, all hell has broken loose.. Gold is up $109 and Silver is up over $6... Gold has surpassed the $5,000 level, and Silver has gone past the $100 level... This move has come too far too fast, if you ask me, I'm not one to want an asset to go to the moon in a short time... I Would prefer it to take the slow, steady route to the moon... But, it is what it is, and even through I called for the two metals to reach these levels, them reaching them so fast, isn't a third world problem... it does mean that the route on the dollar on.

The dollar got sold down the river again last night, and the BBDXY is down 4 index points at 1,188... Sell American, including the dollar is the theme in the markets right now, and I can't blame them... The dollar has held on to its lofty figure for way too long, with all the fundamentals against it... I'm just saying.

The price of Oil remained trading with a $61 handle overnight, I think the world is finding out that the glut in Oil story is just that... And demand is stronger than expected thus depleting the smaller Oil supplies.

And the 10-year Treasury is seeing some buying (from whom?) and its yield drop to 4.21% this morning... So, we start the week with the prospects of an FOMC rate cut on Wednesday... But I doubt seriously if the FOMC opts for a rate cut at this meeting.

So, I was bang on with my call that the dollar's recent rally would be short lived... Greenland, political fears, and the idea that more rates (just not this week) are on their way, has really sent the dollar to the woodshed... And once it begins to drop, it will continue to do so... I'm just saying...  

Makes you kinda wish you had gone ahead and diversified your investment portfolio, doesn't it? I would think it does!  

I read that the currency markets are on edge to start the week due to their fears of intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ)... The dollar fell so much late last week that the EVEN the Japanese yen rallied VS the dollar.. Currency traders are fearing that the BOJ will intervene to stop this upward movement in yen.

I've always said that the markets have deeper pockets than a Central Bank... That is as long as the markets have the cajónes to challenge the Central Bank.

Circling the wagons here on the currencies for a brief minute... Shoot Rudy, even the Japanese yen is rallying VS the dollar this morning... This reminds me of the last weak dollar trend that started in 2/2002 and ended 9 years later. During this time, you could throw a dart at the roster of currencies and probably pick a winner... I don't think this time will be as easy, for a lot of countries have debt coming out their ear holes.. So, you'll have to use that "stock of a country" criteria I've explained in previous Pfennigs.

Here in the U.S. the PPT never gets challenged for their forays into keeping the dollar from falling off a cliff, ... I truly believe that the PPT is in cahoots with the Gov't and gets their marching orders from them.... Maybe I'm wrong about that but I doubt it!

Well, Gov't spending hasn't slowed down, and won't either... Just last week, The US government sold $654 billion in Treasuries last week across 9 auctions. $500 billion were T-Bills with maturities from 4 to 26 weeks, mostly replacing maturing debt.

Furthermore, $154 billion in notes and bonds were issued, including $50 billion in 10-year notes. Since 2020, T-Bills outstanding have now surged ~$4 trillion, or +160%. As a % of marketable Treasury securities, T-Bills now reflect 22%, near the highest since 2021.

So the Gov't / Treasury isn't changing their strategy so far, this fiscal year for the U.S. I complained about the short-term T-bills coming due in hoards this year and will have to be reissued with higher interest rates/ discounts... So, apparently, no one at the Gov't / Treasury reads my letter... Too Bad, So Sad.

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week was chock-full-o-data... On Thursday, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in at the lowest level in years, 200,000... So, the hyped-up labor problem has abated... We saw that 3^rd QTR GDP was 4.4%... Sounds pretty good, eh? Well, remember that Gov't spending is a BIG part of the GDP calc, and the Gov't spending is off the board! We also saw Personal Income +.3% and personal Spending +.5%... The thing that I think most economist miss here with spending is that prices for everything is inflated higher, and that will cause spending to be larger... I'm just saying.

Today we'll see the Durable Good Orders for Nov... They are so far behind that this data is worthless to me... you know, they used to print Capital Goods orders at the same time, but they no longer print it... Why, you ask? Because it never showed that Corp were putting their earnings back into the Company.

Instead, they Companies buy their own stock... And that's a different problem altogether and I don't have the time or space to get into that right now!

To recap... It's all about the metals these days, folks... Either you're in them, or you're not... I sure hope you're in them... The dollar is getting sent down the river for sale, and Chuck thinks this is just the beginning.

Here's your snippet: "The precious metals complex resumed its upward trajectory overnight. Shortly after the US equity cash open, silver surged above $100 per ounce for the first time on record, while gold approached the $5,000 per ounce level.

As Rick Privorotsky, head of Delta One at Goldman Sachs, noted to clients earlier, flows suggest some speculative participation, but the dominant driver remains structural: "There is clearly hot money involved, but first and foremost gold is a central bank trade… a slow erosion of the dollar's exorbitant privilege rather than a sudden loss of confidence..."

What first came to mind as silver broke above the $100 level was Warren Buffett's late-1990s bet on the precious metal. Berkshire Hathaway accumulated 129.7 million ounces of physical silver, or about 4,000 metric tons, ahead of the Dot Com bubble crash. The position was disposed of around 2006, generating a substantial profit for Berkshire.

Fast forward to October 2024, and we rolled out the Zero Hedge silver/gold coins and bars. At the time, silver was in the low $30s, while gold hovered around $2,600.

But on an even grander scale, several months later in early 2025, David Bateman, the founder of Entrata, revealed on X that he had purchased "close to a billion dollars in precious metals over the past six months.

To be exact, Bateman told his followers on X that he bought "1.5% of the annual global silver supply (12.69 million ounces)."

Earlier today, shortly after silver jumped above $100. He posted on X, "Congrats everyone on $100 silver. Couldn't have happened to a better group of degenerate mildly autistic misfits."

Bateman's trade could easily be up more than 250%, though he did not disclose his cost basis at the time. Either way, it stands out as one heck of a trade. As for readers who purchased ZeroHedge coins and bars of gold and silver, the hedge has clearly paid off."

Chuck again... The article goes on to tell the reasons he put this hedge on.... and it's all the reasons that I've talked about for years now... So, I also feel vindicated... I'm just saying.

Market Prices 1/26/2025: American Style: A$ ,6920, kiwi .5971, C$ .7318, euro 1.1865, sterling 1.3671, Swiss $1.2858, European Style: rand 16.0214, krone 9.770, SEK 8.9415, forint 321.49, zloty 3.5477, koruna 20.4505, RUB 76.31, yen 153.95, sing 1.2699, HKD 7.7947, INR 91.95, China 6.9542, peso 17.39, BRL 5.2579, BBDXY 1,188, Dollar Index 97.15, Oil $61.15, 10-year 4.21%, Silver $ 108.89, Platinum $2,389.00, Palladium $ 2, 151.00, Copper $5.97, and Gold....$ 5,091.

That's it for today... Today is my youngest sister's birthday... Happy Birthday Joanie! I hope your day is GRAND! I had 4 sisters at one time... They used to dress me up and make me play stupid games with them... I only have 2 sisters left... And they live in Houston, Texas, very far from me.... The snowstorm that hit my hometown last weekend was like the old days... I truly believe in weather patterns, and I believe that we're beginning a new colder weather pattern... Remember the covers of TIME magazine in the 70's calling for a new ice age? Oh well, The band Trooper takes us to the finish line today with their 60's song; Round, Round We Go.. I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!