|

CRB index reversal: Impact on commodities, inflation, and the Dollar [Video]

It’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory.

When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced.

Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.

Chart

CRB vs DXY daily chart

If you are interested in detailed view and more analysis like this, you may want to watch below our latest recording of a live webinar streamed yesterday on Monday September 02 2024:


Get Full Access To Our Premium Elliott Wave Analysis For 14 Days. Click here.


Get Full Access To Our Premium Elliott Wave Analysis For 14 Days. Click here.

Author

Gregor Horvat

Gregor Horvat

Wavetraders

Experience Grega is based in Slovenia and has been in the Forex market since 2003.

More from Gregor Horvat
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD steadies near 1.1750 ahead of final Eurozone CPI amid fading USD recovery

The EUR/USD pair steadies around the 1.1750 area during the Asian session on Wednesday, and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's sharp retracement slide from the highest level since September 24. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop remains tilted in favor of bullish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.

GBP/USD gains ground above 1.3400 on UK PMI optimism

The GBP/USD pair gains momentum to around 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling edges higher against the Greenback on the upbeat UK preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index data. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. 

Gold advances to near seven-week highs amid US labor market cooling

Gold price extends its upside to near seven-week highs above $4,300 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The precious metal gains momentum as the US labor market remains relatively resilient but shows signs of slowing. The mixed US employment report for November reinforces bets of further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and weighs on the US Dollar.

XRP dips as bearish pressure persists despite ETF growth

Ripple is finding footing above $1.90 at the time of writing on Tuesday after a bearish wave swept across the broader cryptocurrency market, building on persistent negative sentiment.

Ukraine-Russia in the spotlight once again

Since the start of the week, gold’s price has moved lower, but has yet to erase the gains made last week. In today’s report we intend to focus on the newest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whilst noting the release of the US Employment data later on day and end our report with an update in regards to the tensions brewing in Venezuela.

BNB Price Forecast: BNB slips below $855 as bearish on-chain signals and momentum indicators turn negative

BNB, formerly known as Binance Coin, continues to trade down around $855 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after a slight decline the previous day. Bearish sentiment further strengthens as BNB’s on-chain and derivatives data show rising retail activity.