Corn is about to make a new all-time high for the fourth time this year. In 2023, it closed with a massive 62% gain. However, this year, it has almost doubled in price since 1st January and we are still in March. It’s one of the best-performing financial instruments in the last 1 year. It broke above $8,000 early in the week and now could be heading to $9,000 after it completely recovers from the 18-19 March minor dip. But how far further upside could it go? Will there be a big pullback soon? How can traders take advantage of this big bullish trend? This technical analysis provides clues from the Elliott wave theory.

In the long term, the bullish trend didn’t start in 2023. It started properly in 2001 when the commodity barely traded at $709. Before the bullish trend was a multi-year decline. We will dwell more on when the trend started. In the last 22-23 years of this trend, the commodity only had major pullbacks in 2003 extended to 2004/05 before the trend continued for the next four years. Another pullback started in 2011 and lasted till 2017 before the currency phase of the bullish trend. From 2017, by projection, Cocoa could hit the 100% extension ($9,500) of the rally between 2001-to-2011 from the end of the pullback in 2017.

On the daily chart, an Elliott wave analysis of the trend from September 2022 suggests we are in the last wave i.e. wave 5 of (C). Meanwhile, the sub-wave ‘v’ (in blue) of 5 is not yet completed and could hit $9,500. This is going to be the next target for Cocoa in both the medium and short term.

On the H4, blue wave ‘v’ (circled) has completed its sub-wave (iv). Wave (v) has emerged and should break above $8510 high toward the 9500 target and even the $10,000 major level. Will there be a bigger pullback from there or the trend will extend higher? The price action afterwards will tell.

Technical Analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo.

Cocoa Elliott Wave analysis [Video]

Author

Peter Mathers

TradingLounge

Peter Mathers started actively trading in 1982. He began his career at Hoei and Shoin, a Japanese futures trading company.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.