Peter A Rosenstreich
Swissquote Bank Ltd
The Chinese economy continues to suffer under US tariffs and slower domestic demand, despite efforts by policy makers to provide economic stimulus. Factory output rose 5.3% annually but declined 0.4% from December. This is the weakest reading since 1995. Chinese exports fell 21% in February from a year earlier. The stock market suffered deep decline in 2018 (CSI 300 Index down -26%). Yet these revaluations created a unique situation. Chinese stocks are up 27.8% this year through 5 March.
The MSCI Indexes will increase weighting of China-A shares for 5% to 20% by yearend. This will push USD 67 billion of investment into mainland China equities. Historically China stocks have been driven by retail investors, due to information gaps and liquidity issues. Now they are attracting institutional investors hungry to get a piece of the world’s second largest economy. The yuan has gained widely on expectations for a US-China deal: it should stabilize USD/CNY around 6.7 or even higher. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer indicated that negotiations are in their final weeks. The positive effect on China stocks will be profound.
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This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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