CHF/JPY Rallies to Highest Levels Since 2018

Dan Blystone TradersLog.com

CHF/JPY soared to its highest levels since December of 2018 in early trading on Thursday. The CHF/JPY currency cross (a pair that does not include the US dollar) is made up of two major financial safe-havens.

The Swiss franc reached long term highs against its major rivals after Switzerland was added to the US Treasury’s watch list of currency manipulators on Monday. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has previously bought large quantities of foreign currencies to contain demand for the franc.

The inclusion in the US Treasury watch list may discourage the SNB from intervening to attempt to limit further appreciation of the franc. The SNB said that interventions are “not aimed at conferring advantages on Switzerland by undervaluing the franc.”

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen fell to its lowest levels in 8 months this week after Washington removed China from its list of of currency manipulators, fueling risk-on sentiment in the market. The yen was also pressured by dampened safe-haven demand after tensions between the US and Iran cooled and the US and China signed a long-awaited trade deal on Wednesday.

The ‘phase one’ deal between the world's largest economic powers reduced some US tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for a commitment from China to purchase more American agricultural, energy and manufactured goods. Additionally, the deal included provisions on intellectual property enforcement and protections. Analysts have suggested that there may be little progress on 'phase two' talks before the US presidential election in November.

The markets cheered the trade deal news with major US stock indices reaching record highs on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 29k for the first time and broader S&P 500 index also closed in record territory. Investors now look to the US retail sales report due for release later on Thursday for further insight into the health of the US economy.

Author

Dan Blystone

TradersLog.com

Experience Dan Blystone began his career in the trading industry in 1998. He worked as an arb clerk on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), flashing orders into the currency futures pits.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Week ahead: US CPI, France’s budget crisis and Q3 earnings to set the market tone

The US dollar held relatively strong this week, despite the disappointing US jobs report on October 2, which further decreased the probability of a back-to-back rate hike by the Fed at the upcoming gathering on October 28.

CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts expand amid diverging signals

The week in one sentence: Euro and Australian Dollar shorts deepened in the week to October 6, while Yen longs rebuilt. In addition, Coffee buying continued, and Gold exposure remained elevated despite another price decline. Speculators turned more negative on the Euro, increasing the net exposure to around 99.3K contracts.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?