The Canadian economy is in good shape. Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC), Stephen Poloz, is therefore in a difficult situation. With favourable economic data on one side and a potential trade war with its largest commercial partner on the other, economic policy lies in the grey zone. With inflation above BoC’s 2% target, wage growth largely exceeding consumer price indices, unemployment at a decade low and, most importantly, an economic expansion above the 2.2% projections from the Canadian monetary authority, the odds would most certainly support further monetary policy tightening.
However, uncertainties regarding further trade sanctions from the US remain. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations, started nearly a year ago, keep dragging and tariffs are looming on lumber, steel, aluminium and possibly autos and automotive parts. Since Canadian interest rates remain among the lowest and the loonie continues to weaken, we see no reason not to hike. Now at 1.25%, the BoC’s policy interest rate will be increasing by a quarter percent to 1.50%. USD/CAD is up 4.7% in 2018: we would therefore expect the pair to head to 1.3170 after the BoC’s announcement.
Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD regains traction, recovers above 1.0700
EUR/USD regained its traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0700 in the American session. The US Dollar struggles to preserve its strength after the data from the US showed that the economy grew at a softer pace than expected in Q1.
GBP/USD returns to 1.2500 area in volatile session
GBP/USD reversed its direction and recovered to 1.2500 after falling to the 1.2450 area earlier in the day. Although markets remain risk-averse, the US Dollar struggles to find demand following the disappointing GDP data.
Gold holds around $2,330 after dismal US data
Gold fell below $2,320 in the early American session as US yields shot higher after the data showed a significant increase in the US GDP price deflator in Q1. With safe-haven flows dominating the markets, however, XAU/USD reversed its direction and rose above $2,340.
XRP extends its decline, crypto experts comment on Ripple stablecoin and benefits for XRP Ledger
Ripple extends decline to $0.52 on Thursday, wipes out weekly gains. Crypto expert asks Ripple CTO how the stablecoin will benefit the XRP Ledger and native token XRP.
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI
After the US close, it’s the Tokyo CPI, a reliable indicator of the national number and then the BoJ policy announcement. Tokyo CPI ex food and energy in Japan was a rise to 2.90% in March from 2.50%.