British pound wavers ahead of UK retail sales numbers

The US dollar rose against key currency peers during the American and Asian sessions after the US released mixed economic numbers yesterday. According to the Labour Department, the country’s initial jobless claims rose from 711k to more than 742k last week as the number of patients in the United States reportedly increased. Further data showed that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index declined from 32.3 in October to 26.3 in November while the business conditions fell from 62.7 to 44.3. On a positive note, existing-home sales in the US rose from 6.57 million to 6.85 million, a 4.3% increase. 

The British dollar is little changed during the Asian session ahead of important UK retail sales numbers. Economists expect the data to show that the headline retail sales rose by 0.1% in October, leading to an annualised addition of 4.2%. That will be a lower increase than September’s MoM and YoY increase of 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively. In the same month, they expect the core retail sales rose by just 0.1% and by a YoY rate of 5.9%. These numbers will come at a time when large parts of the UK are still in lockdown. Also, they will come two days after the bureau released the country’s inflation numbers.

The Canadian dollar is also wavering ahead of the country’s retail sales numbers. Like in the UK, analysts believe that the country’s sales rose by a smaller margin in September. They expect that the headline sales rose by 0.2% while the core retail sales rose by 0.3%. That will be lower than August’s increase of 0.4% ad 0.5%, respectively. The currency is also reacting to the mild crude oil price. The West Texas Intermediate and Brent are in a tight range as the situation in the United States worsens.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair rose sharply during the American session after mixed data from the US. The pair is trading at 1.1873, which is above yesterday’s lowest point of 1.1815. On the four-hour chart, the price has managed to return above the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages. It is also slightly below this week’s high of 1.1920 while the stochastic oscillator has moved above the overbought line. Also, the RSI is flashing neutral signals. Therefore, the pair will likely remain this week’s low of 1.1746 and the high of 1.1920.

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD is in a tight range ahead of the latest Canadian retail sales numbers. The pair is trading at 1.3075, which is in the same range as it was this week. As a result, the price is on the same level as the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at the neutral level of 46. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range today, with the main levels to watch being 1.3100 and 1.3050.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY price is trading at 103.80, which is slightly below this week’s high of 104.20. On the four-hour chart, it is slightly below the white descending trendline. It has also formed a head and shoulders pattern, with the head being at 104.20 level. It is also slightly below the 14-day and 28-day exponential moving averages. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling today as bears aim for the next support at 103.65.