AUD
The Australian dollar edged higher through trade on Monday, creeping back above 0.71 US cents in what was otherwise a relatively quiet start to the week. With little data on hand to spark direction the AUD rallied to touch two week and intraday highs at 0.7119 as equities continued to drive risk appetite and a jump in iron ore prices underpinned AUD demand, before selling pressure forced the currency back below 0.71.
The AUD has struggled to break outside ranges of late, hamstrung by a sustained softness in domestic economic indicators and heightened expectations the RBA will be forced to cut rates at least once through the second half of the year.
Attentions now turn to the RBA’s policy meeting minutes for direction through trade today while, Thursday’s employment print remains a key docket item governing short term direction. Softness across labour market data will add to calls for looser monetary policy and could force the AUD back toward supports at 0.7050 and 0.70.
AUD / NZD
Expected Range: 1.0280 – 1.0430
The New Zealand dollar edged higher during the domestic session yesterday in what was a quiet start to the week. Opening at 0.6848, the Kiwi moved higher to an intraday high of 0.6875 on broader US dollar weakness, trading in a thirty-pip range overnight.
Tuesday looks to have more meaningful price action as Westpac Consumer sentiment was released to market this morning down 5.3 points to 103.8. It has been reported that consumer confidence remains at lows as households continue to be worried about their financial outlook in general.
This morning the New Zealand dollar opens at 0.6850 ahead of the release of Monetary Policy meeting minutes across the Tasman today with the latest Global Dairy Trade auction scheduled this evening.
GBP / AUD
Expected Range: 1.8250 – 1.8850
Financial markets have mostly been quiet overnight as the lack of news flow saw prices track sideways. The Great British Pound was the only exception with the Sterling softening across all the majors to open this morning at 1.3240.
This is shaping up to be an important week for the Pound as Prime Minister May’s originally planned Brexit vote on Tuesday was blocked by Parliament. The deal needs to be “fundamentally different” according to the House of Commons Speaker John Bercow. This only added to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit as Theresa May has yet to request an extension to Article 50 and time is running out.
Moving into Tuesday the Sterling continues to monitor the Brexit headlines as well as release their average earnings index and unemployment rate.
AUD / USD
Expected Range: 0.7050 – 0.7130
The United States dollar broke through the resistance barrier of 0.7100 to hit 0.7117 overnight, below opening at 0.7095 this morning. A quiet week ahead for the USD, until we hear from the Federal Open Market Committee on Thursday. Until then, the markets are expected to track sideways.
The Federal Reserve Economic Projections report will kick off the scheduled event early Thursday and will show the FOMC’s projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years, and a breakdown of each individual FOMC members interest rate forecasts. It is the primary tool that the Fed uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors. The Statement, and Funds Rate will come after. With the Press Conference to close. The Conference is open to press questions and will provide clues regarding future monetary policy.
AUD / EUR
Expected Range: 0.6220 – 0.6340
The Euro kicked off Monday on the front foot slicing through the 50-day EMA (Exponential Moving average), an indicator that measures trend direction over a period and touched a high of 1.1359 vs the Greenback. Unfortunately, the rally was short-lived on the back of selling pressure and saw the pair pull back to 1.1324 in the North America session.
In other news, Eurozone trade surplus widened from €16 billion in December to €17 billion in January. Looking ahead, the ZEW Institute is to publish a report on German economic sentiment.
On the technical front, support sits at 1.1300 and 1.1212. On the upside, resistance is up at 1.1434 and 1.1553
AUD / CAD
Expected Range: 0.9380 – 0.9520
The Canadian dollar enjoyed a largely slow start to the week, bouncing amid a 50-point range as a spike in crude oil prices and a consolidation of USD holdings prevented investors from extending moves beyond recent support and resistance handles. Having enjoyed a small uptick through last week the Loonie slipped back below 0.75 as markets preferred to bench bets ahead of a series of key risk events.
Attentions turn first to the Federal Reserve policy announcement Wednesday, recent softness across domestic data sets and expectations the Fed will maintain an accommodative monetary policy platform through 2019 have weighed on the USD through recent weeks and forced the world’s base unit off key short-term highs at 1.3437. We then shift focus toward Canadian inflation data Friday as core CPI and retails sales data dominate the docket. With the BoC recent dovish turn still in focus a soft read could compound expectations for a sustained period of accommodative monetary policy, weighing on the CAD moving into H2 2019.
IMPORTANT: This information has been prepared for distribution over the internet and without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any particular person. Oz Forex Foreign Exchange makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites. Please read our Product Disclosure Statement and our Financial Services Guide.
Regulated in Australia by ASIC (AFS Licence number 226 484)
© 2010 Copyright Oz Forex Foreign Exchange Pty Ltd ABN 65 092-375-703
OzForex Foreign Exchange Services
Member of FOS (Financial Ombudsman Service)
Full Member of AFMA (Australian Financial Markets Association)
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY holds positive ground around 151.50 following Japanese CPI data
The USD/JPY pair holds positive ground for the second consecutive day near 151.45 on Friday during the early Asian trading hours. The cautious approach from the Bank of Japan to keep monetary conditions accommodative exerts some selling pressure on the Japanese Yen.
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
Gold price finishes Thursday’s session set to reach new all-time highs
Gold price rallied during the North American session on Thursday and hit a new all-time high of $2,225 in the mid-North American session. Precious metal prices are trending higher even though US Treasury yields are advancing, underpinning the Greenback.
Top 3 Price Prediction BTC, ETH, XRP: Retail watches from the sidelines with a bias for shorts
Bitcoin is showing strength as markets head into the Easter holidays. As it rises, altcoins are following suit, with Ethereum and Ripple posting almost similar gains. Meanwhile, there remains an unfilled CME Gap, with a lot of liquidity also resting above and below BTC price.
Bears have been standing before a steamroller so far this year
Despite a pushback on rate cuts from Christopher Waller, and what was supposed to be cautious trading sentiment ahead of critical US inflation data released later on Friday, the S&P 500 rose on Thursday, marking its best first-quarter performance in five years.