AUDUSD waiting for the RBA

If you are a trader who respects the money management rules and has a very strict risk control, you probably avoid trading during interest rates decision. On the other hand, if you love volatility and this thrill associated with the central banks, you probably cannot wait to open a trade close to that important macro events. At the beginning of July, we will have a decision from the RBA. Using this occasion we will analyse the AUDUSD.

Going too technical before interest rate decision is hard and usually pointless because the market reaction and the decision itself are sometimes a lottery. Sometimes the technical signal is strengthen with the data and when it happens and technical and fundementals come together, the movement is very strong and can make traders very happy.

Technically on the AUDUSD we do have a sell signal. June was great but at the end of the month, the price reached a crucial long-term resistance and bounced from it nicely. Price created a candle with a long head, showing that supply was there, ready to fight. Monday starts with a candle with a large bearish body. Traders are simply following the signal from Friday. Additionally they are taking profits from this huge upswing seen in June. In my opinion, this should continue at least to the 0.7620, if not deeper - to 0,7540.

If the statement from the RBA will be ultra hawkish, it can cause an upswing, which will attack the long-term down trendline again. We can assume that above that red line there are loads of stop loss orders of most of the recent sellers. In case they would get activated, that would spark a huge upswing, which would significantly increase the bullish momentum. That being said, all eyes are on the RBA now...

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