AUDUSD fell further after downbeat data/RBA staying pat, but bears show signs of hesitation

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar dipped to new nearly one month low at 0.7835 on Tuesday, extending steep pullback from 0.8135 peak into seventh consecutive day. The Aussie remains under pressure which increased on Friday after solid US jobs data inflated the greenback, with fresh pressure coming from downbeat Australian data on Tuesday. Australian central bank left the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.5% in a widely expected action and showing more positive stance regarding global and domestic growth, but remains concerned about low inflation and signaled that they may stay on hold for some time. Australian retail sales fell below expectations in December (-0.5% vs -0.2% f/c and upwards-revised previous month’s release at 1.3%), while a separate report showed Australia’s trade balance hit deficit of A$1.36 billion in December, vs forecasted surplus of A$0.25 billion and previous month’s surplus of A$0.03 billion. However, the Aussie shows signs of hesitation above new low as daily slow stochastic is deeply oversold and suggesting correction, while RSI turned from descend to sideways mode and supporting the notion. Bull-cross of 55/100SMA is forming below and also underpins. On the other side, broken 10SMA turned south and heading towards 20SMA in sideways mode, maintaining pressure. Former pivotal support, now resistance, at 0.7892 (Fibo 38.2% of 0.7500/0.8135 rally) caps for now and firm break here is needed to sideline immediate downside risk and generate stronger correction signal. Broken 30 SMA marks next barrier at 0.7927, followed by 20SMA (0.7983) and 10SMA (0.8013) regain of which would confirm an end of corrective phase. Conversely, repeated failures at 0.7892 would keep in play risk of extension towards 0.7778 (converged 55/100SMA) and 0.7743 (200SMA / Fibo 61.8% of 0.7500/0.8135 rally).

Res: 0.7892; 0.7927; 0.7953; 0.7984
Sup: 0.7835; 0.7817; 0.7778; 0.7743