AUD/USD drops to neutral zone

Christina Parthenidou XM

AUDUSD started the week on the downside but the 20-day moving average (MA) seems to be keeping the pair under control as the price looks to be reversing higher today after failing to cross below the line yesterday. In the short-term, expectations are for a sideways move as long as the MACD fluctuates around its red signal line and the RSI flirts with its 50 neutral mark.

An extension higher could lead the price up to 0.7210 which is the 50% Fibonacci level of the negative wave from 0.7672 to 0.6746. Breaking that obstacle and surpassing the previous peak of 0.7234, could open the way towards the 200-day MA currently at 0.73 and the 61.8% Fibonacci of 0.7320. Yet, a stronger rally above the 0.7392 top is needed to continue the uptrend started on October 26.

Moving south and below the 20-day MA, the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.7100 could provide immediate support as it did back in September. Under that level, a stronger barrier is expected to come around 0.7050 where the bears found a floor during October, while significant losses below the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.6965 would reactivate the nine-month old downleg off 0.8135.

Turning to the medium-term picture, AUDUSD maintains a neutral outlook in the three-month timeframe. Should the 50-day MA remain flat, consolidation may stay in place for longer.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

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