AUD/USD Forecast: The 0.6700 area still critical, Australian data in focus

Matías Salord FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6740

A mixed session in Wall Street and in the global bond market, kept AUD/USD mostly in ranges.
Key Australian economic data ahead includes growth and inflation; Chinese PMIs also due on Wednesday.
AUD/USD holds above the critical 0.6700 threshold without much bullish conviction.

The AUD/USD pair heads into March moving below the 0.6750 price zone after being able to trade all Tuesday above 0.6700. The Aussie rose marginally after Australian Retail Sales showed a solid 1.9% increase in January, surpassing the 1.5% of market consensus and recovering after the 4% slide of December. A weaker US Dollar helped the pair remain above 0.6700 despite some deterioration in market sentiment. The Kiwi outperformed the Aussie, with AUD/NZD falling to a five-week low under 1.0900.

Key economic data is due on Wednesday in Australia. First on the docket will be the PMIs for January, followed by Q4 GDP growth (estimate 0.8%) and the Monthly Consumer Price Index, with the annual rate expected to drop from 8.4% to 8%. Analysts will look closely at inflation, growth and wage indicators to use them as input for their expectations about monetary policy.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair is about to post another daily close around the 0.6730/40 area, after being able to hold above 0.6700 and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) while, at the same time, unable to break the 0.6750 resistance. A firm breakout below 0.6700 would increase the bearish pressure, favoring more losses, in line with the current trend.

The 4-hour chart shows some weak positive signs for the Aussie, with RSI and Momentum moving north. However, AUD/USD pulled back under the 20-SMA (currently at 0.6747) after briefly trading above it. The price is still moving south, just like the 100 and 200 SMAs. If the pair manages to break and hold above 0.6750, more gains seem likely. A recovery above 0.6800/10 (horizontal resistance and short-term downtrend line) would add support to the Aussie for a stronger recovery.

Support levels: 0.6700 0.6655 0.6615

Resistance levels: 0.6755 0.6785 0.6810

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.