|premium|

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian lockdowns add to the bearish case

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.7338

  • RBA Meeting Minutes reaffirmed the dovish stance and pledge for continued support.
  • Australian Retail Sales are expected to have fallen in July due to the latest lockdowns.
  • AUD/USD retains the bearish stance in the near stance, holding near 2021 lows.

The AUD/USD pair bottomed for the day at 0.7299, a fresh 2021 low, recovering just modestly ahead of the daily close. The aussie has been among the worst performers against the greenback in a risk-averse environment, as the Australian currency has also suffered from local woes. The spread of the Delta variant in the country and the subsequent lockdowns are weighing heavily on the economy, according to June macroeconomic figures. Restrictions have been extended these days, which means July will be another month of soft data.

The Reserve Bank of Australia published the Minutes of its latest meeting. The document showed that policymakers are compromised to maintain supportive monetary conditions, and repeated rates will remain at record lows until employment and inflation reach the desired levels. On Wednesday, Australia will publish the June Westpac Leading Index previously at -0.06%, and the preliminary estimate of June Retail Sales, foreseen at -0.5%.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading around the 0.7330 level, and the risk is skewed to the downside. The 4-hour chart shows that technical indicators have stabilized well into negative levels, while the RSI is indicating oversold conditions. In the mentioned time frame, moving averages maintain their bearish slopes above the current level, suggesting sellers are still in control of the pair.

Support levels: 0.7290 0.7260 0.7215

Resistance levels: 0.7365 0.7400 0.7440

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to PremiumSign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

More from Valeria Bednarik
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans. 

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.