AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie hesitates despite hawkish RBA Minutes

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6811

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes noted further tightening may be required.
Wall Street rallied on the back of upbeat earnings reports from big American banks.
AUD/USD keeps losing steam in the near term, bearish correction once below 0.6780.

The AUD/USD pair struggled for direction on Tuesday, spending the day seesawing around 0.6814, where it started the day. The pair eased throughout the first half of the day amid a dismal mood and following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting Minutes. The document brought some hawkish surprises, as Australian policymakers agreed some further tightening may be required, adding that “they would reconsider at August meeting.”

Furthermore, authorities reported that a 25 basis points (bps) cash rate hike was on the table and noted that the restrictive monetary policy would become more so. Finally, policymakers said they do not expect inflation to return to the top of the target range until mid-2025.

AUD/USD bottomed at 0.6788 but changed course after Wall Street’s opening, as stocks bounced nicely following upbeat earning reports. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Bank of NY Mellon reported figures exceeding expectations and pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest for 2023.

Early Wednesday, Australia will release the June CB Leading Index and the Westpac Leading Index for the same month, gauges of economic activity.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair trades a few pips in the red ahead of the US close, and the daily chart shows that it remains trapped between Fibonacci levels. To the upside, the 23.6% retracement of the 0.6598/0.6894 rally provides resistance at 0.6825, while support can be found at the 38.2% retracement at 0.6780. Moving averages in the aforementioned time frame remain directionless and within a limited range far below the current level, although technical indicators aim higher with uneven strength above their midlines, limiting chances of a steeper decline.

The upside seems limited in the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) turned south, standing above the current level, while technical indicators are neutral-to-bullish, although within negative levels.

Support levels: 0.6780 0.6740 0.6705

Resistance levels: 0.6825 0.6870 0.6905

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD: The 0.7000 level holds the downside…for now

AUD/USD has clinched its fourth consecutive daily pullback on Thursday, coming closer to the key 0.7000 region while breaking below the critical 200-day SMA at the same time. The Aussie’s decline comes on the back of further gains in the Greenback in a context of rising yields and Fed rate hike bets.

USD/JPY keeps the red near 158.00 as Japanese Yen firms up

USD/JPY retreats from three-week highs and holds losses near 158.00 in the Asian session on Thursday. Surging Japanese bond yields lift the Yen amid looming intervention risks, while the US Dollar preserves overnight gains to a two-month high amid hawkish Fed bets and elevated US bond yields.

Gold bounces off lows, still below $4,300

Gold builds on Wednesday’s retracement, briefly slipping back below $4,250 per troy ounce to attempt a lacklustre rebound afterwards. The better tone in the US Dollar, rising US Treasury yields and expectation of extra rate hikes by the Fed continue to weigh on the precious metal in the latter part of Thursday’s NA session.

XRP is flashing three bullish signals heading into a historically weak October

XRP (XRP) is still flashing 3 bullish signals across its holders, derivatives, and ETF data. These signals come as the token gave back part of its September gains on Thursday. The token traded near $1.50 at press time, down about 6.3% over 24 hours, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. The pullback still leaves XRP up over 15.6% on the week, a gain that tracks a broader market rally.

Advanced economies: From one example of resilience to another

History tends to repeat itself in advanced economies. Once again, growth ultimately fell short of expectations by only a small margin in the first half of 2026, despite the conflict in Iran. As early as 2025, the impact of tariffs was less severe than feared.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.