Another quiet day as markets gird for 'where to from here', post-US govt shutdown

Asia Market Update: Another quiet day as markets gird for 'where to from here', post-US govt shutdown; Hot Aussie jobs; Focus on CN data dump tomorrow.

General trend and developments

- The US House confirmed with a 222-209 vote to finally end the record-long US govt shutdown, accompanied by another mini-relief rally in equities on the news.

- Aussie 3-year yields pushed higher >10bps post-hotter Oct jobs data and a falling unemployment rate as the Aussie dollar also spiked +0.3%, adding grist to recent warnings from Gov Bullock and Dep Gov Hauser that the easing cycle may be over.

- Korean won fell to 1,476 vs USD, almost to its early 2025 lows (after that is the 2008 lows of ~1,600) as the South Korea Fiscal Deficit through Sept came in at KRW102.4T, the 2nd largest deficit on record for the Jan-Sept period, after that of 2020.

- Japan PPI for October came in hotter than expected, with the monthly figure pointing towards an annualized rate of >3%. Prior month revisions also raised higher.

- Euro/Yen hit a record high at 179.49 as USD/JPY again tested 155.

- Japan 5-year JGB sale saw demand below both prior auction and the 12-month average bid-to-cover of 3.69x. Japan yield curve slightly flattened at the long end.

- Further indications of PM Takaichi stamping her mark on Japan’s future economic direction towards fiscal expansion, saying the govt will consider revising the primary balance target to one measured over several years horizon rather than each year. Overnight she also met with the BOJ, commenting that she will closely cooperate with the BOJ to achieve economic growth.

- Overnight reports that US carmaker GM has directed several thousand of its suppliers to scrub their supply chains of parts from China.

- With the markets hanging out for their regular data fix suspended due to the UA govt shutdown, the White House said the Sept BLS data will be released following the Govt reopening but suggested that the Oct CPI and jobs data will likely never to be released; Govt shutdown may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system.

- US equity FUTs +0.2% to +0.3% during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted releases, using Asian time zone)

- Thu Nov 13th (Thu eve UK Q3 prelim GDP).

- Fri Nov 14th NZ Oct Business PMI, CN Oct data dump.

Holidays in Asia this week

- No holidays in Asia this week.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 -0.1% at 8,788.

- AUSTRALIA OCT EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +42.2K V +20.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.3% V 4.4%E.

- Australia Nov Consumer Inflation Expectation: 4.5% v 4.8% prior.

- Australia sells A$150M of indexed Aug 2035 bonds; Avg Yield: 2.0184% v 2.0407% prior; bid to cover 3.32x v 2.90x prior.

- New Zealand Oct Total Card Spending M/M: +0.0% v -0.4% prior.

- New Zealand Fin Min: Accepted or partially accepted all recommendations made by Finance and Expenditure Committee's inquiry into banking competition.

- New Zealand sells total NZ$450M in 2030, 2034 and 2054 bonds.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens -0.5% at 26,779; Shanghai Composite opens -0.1% at 3,996.

- China A-share market is expected to continue to gain in 2026, according to domestic brokerage firms; earnings growth for A-share firms is expected to be ~4.7% next year - China Securities Journal.

-China said to target 'tax dodges' by sellers on Amazon, e-commerce sites - US financial press.

- China Yuan (CNY) is expected to continue rising in 2026; notes factors including 'structural weakness' in the US dollar index - China Securities Journal.

- (G7) France Pres Macron proposes G7 invite for China Pres Xi.

- GM said to have directed several thousand of its suppliers to scrub their supply chains of parts from China – press [overnight update].

- China to enhance competitiveness of energy market; Studying usage of special bonds to support new projects - statement on New Energy industry development [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.0865 v 7.0833 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY190B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY97B v injects CNY130B prior.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens -0.1%, 51,013.

- Japan Oct PPI Services M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.5%e.

- (JP) Japan releases weekly flows data [period ended Nov 7th]: Foreign buying of Japan equities: -¥347.3B v ¥690.1B prior; Japan buying of foreign bonds:+¥566.3B v -¥354.4B prior.

- JAPAN SELLS ¥2.4T VS. ¥2.4T INDICATED IN 5-YEAR JGB BONDS; AVG YIELD: 1.2450% V 1.2330% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER: 3.33X V 3.69X PRIOR.

- BOJ Gov Ueda: Aiming for stable inflation with rise in wages; Mechanism is in place for wages and prices to rise gradually.

- Japan Fin Min Katayama: JGBs are held predominantly by domestic investors, so it's hard to foresee Japan defaulting on its debt.

- Japan PM Takaichi: We'll strive to create a strong economy so that tax revenues rise without tax hikes - financial press.

- BOJ Gov Ueda: Aiming for stable inflation with rise in wages.

- Former BOJ Official Wakatabe: BOJ maintains independence over monetary policy methods [overnight update].

- Japan PM Takaichi: Exchanged views on package and growth strategy; Will closely cooperate with BOJ to achieve economic growth - comments follow meeting on fiscal and economic policy [overnight update].

Korea

- Kospi opens -0.5% at 4,127 (delayed opening).

- South Korea Fiscal Deficit through Sept at KRW102.4T [2nd largest deficit on record for the Jan-Sept period, after that of 2020] - Local press.

- South Korea Oct Total Bank Lending To Household (KRW): 1,173.7T v 1,170T prior.

Other Asia

- Singapore Central Bank (MAS): Announces Successful Live Trial of Settlement of Interbank Overnight Lending Using Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency.

- Taiwan Chief Statistician: Sees 2025 GDP growth >5.5% (v >5.0% prior).

- GRAB Said to be in discussions with Goto to offer Indonesia govt 'golden share' to secure approval for $29B merger – FT [overnight update].

North America

(US) Majority of US House by 222-209 votes confirmed to pass the reopening of the US govt, as expected - financial press- US FAA freezes flight reduction plan at 6%; FAA will continue to monitor staffing levels.

- (US) Pres Trump to sign Senate amendment to H.R. 5371 to fund govt at 21:45pm; To sign bill to end shutdown on Wed night - White House statement.

- US White House: Sept BLS data will be released following the Govt reopening; White House Press Sec Leavitt: Oct CPI and jobs data will likely never to be released; Govt shutdown may have permanently damaged the federal statistical system.

- (US) House Speaker Johnson: Will bring the Epstein files vote to the House floor next week.

- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 7th: +0.6% v -1.2% y/y.

- (US) BOFA INSTITUTE: OCT TOTAL CARD SPENDING +2.4% Y/Y V +2.0% ON AVERAGE IN SEPT; BofA Consumer Prism shows a steady gap between higher- and lower-income HHs' y/y total card spending growth and not surprisingly, the gap is larger in certain discretionary categories, such as airlines, furniture, lodging and cruises.

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: Will soon see tariff relief on coffee, bananas and other items that we don't produce in the US - Fox News.

- (US) Fed's Williams (voter): Closely watching markets for liquidity signals.

- (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter for 2025 & 2026) announces retirement plans when term ends in Feb 28th, 2026; Atlanta Fed Coo Cheryl Venable to serve as Interim Pres.

- (US) House committee releases an additional 20K Epstein related documents.

- (MX) Mexico Oct ANTAD Same-Store Sales Y/Y: 2.6% v 0.5% prior.

- (US) TREASURY'S $42B 10-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.074% V 4.255% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.43 V 2.35 PRIOR AND 2.50 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS.

- (US) Fed's Miran (FOMC voter, dovish dissenter): Reiterates Fed policy too restrictive; Should Not take US inflation data at face value - comments in UK.

Europe

- (UK) Oct RICS House Price Balance: -19% v -14%e.

- (FR) France Fin Min Lescure: Fairly confident parliament will approve French budget.

- (DE) Germany Sept Current Account Balance: €18.6B v €9.5B prior.

Levels as of 01:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +0.3%, ASX 200 -0.5%, Hang Seng -0.5%; Shanghai Composite +0.5%; Kospi +0.6%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.3%; DAX +0.4%; FTSE100 +0.2%.

- EUR 1.1570-1.1587; JPY 154.62-155.01; AUD 0.6533-0.6566; NZD 0.5648--5675.

- Gold +0.2% at $4,220oz; BTC -1.4% at $102,040; Crude Oil -0.1% at $58.42bbl; Copper +0.8% at $5.1252/lb.