'A lot' of weekend news, but markets take in stride ahead of 'tariff Tues'

Asia market update: 'A lot' of weekend news, but markets take in stride ahead of 'tariff Tues'; Ukraine-Russia political maneuvering continues; Crypto rebounds on Trump EO; Focus on EU Feb Adv CPI, US Feb ISM Mnfg.

General trend

- After a week of stinging stock losses amid Trump tariff concerns and softer US economic data, and a nascent recovery on Friday morning being wiped out on Trump-Zeleskiy’s White House meeting outcome in the middle of the day, US equities finished strongly during the last two hours of Friday trading, +1.3%.

- Asian stocks Monday continued the recovery theme, as did Eurostoxx and DAX. [Indonesia stocks +3.5%, most in one-day for four years]. Currencies were generally bid vs USD.

- The Ukraine-Russia peace / war dynamic is now highly fluid following Ukraine’s Zelenskiy being asked to leave the White House on Friday without the planned minerals and economic deal with the US being signed and question marks over whether such an agreement will now be signed at all. Particularly with Trump saying that Zelenskiy’s attitude needed to change to be wanting peace. Meanwhile Zelenskiy immediately headed to the UK and the EU to shore up more money and defense support for Ukraine. Russia’s Putin has also offered a potential peace deal directly with the US in exchange for an economic deal that would include American access to minerals and rare earths.

- The US tariff situation is also foremost at mind, with US Commerce Sec Lutnick confirming there will indeed be tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, Mar 4th, but final levels TBD; However, China tariffs are said to be “set” unless China ends fentanyl trafficking into the US. [Separately, China warned the US it might retaliate with its own tariffs, particularly agricultural and food products].

- Australia Q4 inventories better than expected, ahead of AU Q4 GDP this Wed, as wages & salaries +1.4%.

- Asia PMI Manufacturing day saw Japan remain in contraction for the 8th straight month, as Australia managed its second straight expansion. Taiwan also maintained its 11 month expansion streak.

- China’s official Feb Manufacturing PMI (released over the weekend) moved back into slightly expansionary territory, while Caixin Mnfg PMI released today saw its 5th month of expansion.

- Japan 30-year JGB yield rose to the highest since Oct 2008 [2.365%], with JP 10-years +3bps to 1.40%.

- Bitcoin’s recovery from <$80K on Friday, continued at a dramatic pace earlier today, +10% to $94K, after US Pres Trump announced an Executive Order on Digital Assets to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP (+25%), SOL (+20%) , ADA (+60%), BTC (+10%) and ETH (+10%).

- US equity FUTs slightly up during Asian trading.

Looking ahead (Asian time zone)

- Mon Mar 3rd (Mon eve EU Feb Adv CPI, US Feb ISM Mnfg).

- Tue Mar 4th JP Jan Jobless, JP Q4 Capital Spending, AU RBA Minutes, AU Retail Sales,

- Wed Mar 5th AU Q4 GDP, CN Feb Caixin PMI Services, CN NPC starts, BOJ Dep Gov Uchida, (Wed night US Feb ISM Services).

- Thu Mar 6th KR Feb CPI , CN NPC continues, (Thu night EU rate decision).

- Fri Mar 7th CN Jan-Feb Trade Bal, (Fri night US Feb NFP).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Mar 3rd South Korea.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

- ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 8,175.

- Australia Q4 Inventories Q/Q: 0.1% v 0.0%e.

- Australia Feb Melbourne Institute Inflation M/M: -0.2% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3% prior.

- Australia Feb ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements M/M: -1.4% v +1.3% prior.

- Australia Feb Final Manufacturing PMI: 50.4 v 50.6 prelim (confirms second straight expansion).

- Australia Feb CoreLogic Home Value M/M: +0.3% v -0.2% prior – update.

- New Zealand Q4 Terms of Trade Index Q/Q: 3.1% v 1.4%e - update.

China/Hong Kong

- Hang Seng opens +0.8% at 23,135; Shanghai Composite opens +0.2% at 3,328.

- China Feb Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 50.8 V 50.4E (5th month of expansion).

- China PBOC: Financial regulators on Fri held Symposium on financial support of private companies; Execs from Eve Group, Geely Holdings, SenseTime, YTO Express and Inner Mongolia Industrial group in attendance - PBOC Statement.

- China Global Times: China is studying countermeasures on the US in response to US Mar 4th tariff threat which may include tariff and non-tariff measures; US agricultural and food products will most likely be listed.

- China port throughput said to slow amid uncertainties of tariffs - financial press.

- BABA TTN Research Alert: Damo Academy, the research arm of Alibaba Group Holding, has launched its first server-grade central processing unit (CPU), the C930, based on the open-source RISC-V architecture, marking a significant step in the company’s push to enhance its AI capabilities and navigate increasing US restrictions on advanced chip technology.

- BYD Reports Feb NEV sales 322.8K v 122.3K y/y.

- China Feb Manufacturing PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 50.2 V 49.9E [moves back into expansion] – weekend update.

- Reportedly China tells AI leaders to avoid travel to the US over security concerns – press [weekend update].

- DEEPSEEK.IPO TTN Research Alert: On Mar 1st, DeepSeek revealed in an X post that their models could achieve a theoretical profit margin of 545% over a 24-hour period, trying to challenge the narrative that AI companies are unprofitable.

- (HK) Macau Feb (MOP) Casino Rev Y/Y: 19.7B, +6.8% v +0.8%e [weekend update].

- China Pres Xi: To make domestic demand main driver of economic growth [late Friday update].

- China PBOC confirms did not conduct bond trading in Feb; Sold CNY1.4T of outright reverse repos [late Friday update].

- (MX) Mexico said to be open to new tariffs on China to avoid US tariffs – press [late Friday update].

- (HK) Macau Q4 GDP Y/Y: 3.4% v 4.7% prior [late Friday update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1745 v 7.1738 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY97B in 7-day reverse repos; Net drains CNY196B v prior injects CNY102B.

Japan

- Nikkei 225 opens +1.5% at 37,717.

- Japan Feb Final Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 v 48.9 prelim (confirms 8th straight contraction).

- Japan PM Ishiba says has no intention of taking sides [referring to the US and Ukraine] - Japanese press.

- Japan 30-year JGB yield rises to the highest since Oct 2008 [2.365%].

Korea

- Kospi closed for holiday.

- South Korea Feb Trade Balance: $4.3B v $4.8Be [weekend update].

Other Asia

- Thailand Dep Fin Min Paopoom: MOF asks state-owned banks to cut rates following BOT rate cut last week - financial press.

- Indonesia Feb CPI M/M: -0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.6%e.

- Taiwan Feb PMI Manufacturing: 51.5 v 51.1 prior (11th month of expansion).

- Indonesia Feb PMI Manufacturing: 53.6 v 51.9 prior (third straight expansion).

- Thailand Feb PMI Manufacturing: 50.6 v 49.6 prior (moves back into expansion after one month contraction).

- Malaysia Feb PMI Manufacturing: 49.7 v 48.7 prior (9th month of contraction).

- Philippines Feb PMI Manufacturing: 51.0 v 52.3 prior (18th month of expansion).

- Vietnam Feb PMI Manufacturing: 49.2 v 48.9 prior (third straight contraction).

- India Feb Final PMI Manufacturing: 56.3 v 57.1 prelim (confirms 44th month of expansion).

North America

- *(US) Pres Trump: U.S. Crypto Reserve will elevate this critical industry after years of corrupt attacks by the Biden Administration... My Executive Order on Digital Assets directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes XRP, SOL, and ADA; Obviously, BTC and ETH, as other valuable Cryptocurrencies, will be the heart of the Reserve.

- *(US) Commerce Sec Lutnick: There will be tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Tuesday, March 4th, but Pres Trump will determine at what levels; China tariffs are set unless they end fentanyl trafficking into the US.

- (US) Reportedly acting administrator of the General Services Administration, Stephen Ehikian called on procurement officials at federal agencies to list and justify consulting contracts from 10 companies, including Booz Allen, Accenture, Deloitte and International Business Machines, that the agencies intend to keep; The responses are due March 7th - WSJ.

- (US) Reportedly House Speaker Johnson wants clear CR through FY through Sept 2025 - Punchbowl [**Note: March 14 is current US govt funding deadline].

- (UR) Elon Musk: What I said over 2 years ago was that Ukraine should seek peace or suffer severe loss of life for no gains. The latter was Zelensky’s choice. Now, he wants to do that again. This is cruel and inhumane.

- (US) Trump to host the first White House Cryptocurrency Summit on March 7th [weekend update].

- (US) TTN Research Alert: There are claims that Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy muttered a cuss word at JD Vance during the heated exchange on Friday, although no conclusive evidence, such as enhanced audio analysis, has emerged to verify the claim; Even if he did, the word/phrase he may have used is an interjection to express frustration or exasperation, akin to an English expletive like "damn" or "hell".

- (US) Treasury Sec Bessent: It is impossible to get economic deal with Ukraine without a peace deal.

- (UR) Trump is reportedly considering ending all ongoing military aid to Ukraine - Washington Post [Saturday ET update].

- (UR) Trump: To restart talks, Zelenskiy has to say that he wants to make peace; We are not going to keep fighting; Zelenskiy did not look like a man who wants peace [late Friday update].

- (MX) Mexico said to be open to new tariffs on China to avoid US tariffs – press [weekend update].

Europe

- EU to extend 'relaxed' subsidy regime for energy - FT.

- (IE) Ireland Feb PMI Manufacturing: 51.9 v 51.3 prior (2nd month of expansion).

- (UR) Ukraine President Zelenskiy: There will be more diplomatic peace efforts [follows meeting with European leaders].

- (EU) Poland PM Tusk: Poland will Not send its troops to Ukraine - financial press.

- (UR) BBC's Kuenssberg: President Zelenskiy tells us he didn't apologise for how he handled the Oval Office meeting, but said it wasn't right for such conversations to be absolutely open 'it didn't bring anything positive or additional to us as partners'.

- (UR) Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy: European unity at an extremely high level not seen for a long time - comments after London summit.

- (AT) Members of Austria's Neos party voted in favour of a coalition deal with the conservative People's Party (OVP) and Social Democrats (SPO) - press.

- (RU) Reportedly "former spy and close friend of Putin" has been engineering a restart of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe with the backing of US investors, including post-sanctions deal with Gazprom - FT.

- (RU) Russia's Pres Putin: Offers potential rare-earth minerals deal to US following break down of Trump-Zelenskiy talks at White House (update).

- (UR) Former Russian Pres Medvedev: Russia is prepared to show flexibility in talks on Ukraine, but only in accordance with the Russian constitution and realities on the ground [weekend update].

- (UR) UK and Ukraine sign agreement that provides additional £2.6B in loans towards Ukraine's defense - Sky News [Saturday ET update].

- (UR) Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy: I want peace but that will require security guarantees to prevent Russia from attacking again; Very thankful to Pres Trump, I respect him and the American people, but refuses to apologize - Fox News interview (update 2/28) [Saturday ET update].

Levels as of 00:20 ET

- Nikkei 225 +1.8%, ASX 200 +0.9%, Hang Seng +1.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.5%; Kospi closed.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%; Dax +0.7%; FTSE100 +0.7%.

- EUR 1.0398-1.0424; JPY 150.25-151.02; AUD 0.6209-0.6331; NZD 0.5598-0.5614.

- Gold +1.0% at $2,875/oz; Crude Oil +0.5% at $70.11/brl; Copper +0.1% at $4.5670/lb.