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After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.
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In-Depth Analysis
2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.
Gold skyrockets in 2025 amid safe haven flows and Fed cut bets. Investors anticipate more than two rate cuts for next year. Geopolitical conflicts, tariffs and central bank buying also drivers.
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Cryptocurrencies
Meme coins such as Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe are leading the cryptocurrency market rally driven by the US cross-border operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Dogecoin extends its gain for the fifth consecutive day while SHIB and PEPE take a pause.
Cardano (ADA) steadies above $0.40 at the time of writing on Monday after a decisive close above the falling wedge pattern in the previous week. The derivatives market supports improving sentiment, with ADA’s Open Interest rising and long bets increasing among market participants.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple extended their rallies on Monday, gaining more than 4%, 6%, and 12%, respectively, in the previous week. The top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization could continue to outperform, with bulls in control of the momentum.
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Stocks
S&P 500 and Nasdaq did indeed see much selling Friday, prior pump nothwithstand – just fueling interest to capture those capital gains in the New Year as the higher the price, the greater the incentive to take advantage of it as Wednesday‘s last two hours‘ slide was vicious.
Yearly Forecast
Gold hit multiple new record highs throughout 2025. Trade-war fears, geopolitical instability and monetary easing in major economies were the main drivers behind Gold’s rally.
What a year! Donald Trump’s return to the United States (US) Presidency was no doubt what led financial markets throughout 2025. His not-always-unexpected or surprising decisions shaped investors’ sentiment, or better said, unprecedented uncertainty.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) has appreciated sharply against the US Dollar (USD) in 2025, poised for a 23% gain amid an environment of trade uncertainty and increasing geopolitical tensions between Mexico and the United States governments.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) adoption story is unraveling and the king crypto could see institutional demand return in 2026. Crypto asset managers like Grayscale are betting on Bitcoin’s rally to a new all-time high next year, and themes like Bitcoin as a reserve asset are emerging.
