WTI slumps back to $93.00 area as US/EU sanctions avoid Russian energy, Biden signals SPR release

WTI fell back to near $93.00 having spiked as high as $100 earlier in the session as Russia invaded Ukraine.
US and EU sanctions have for now avoided the Russian energy sector, easing supply disruption concerns.
President Biden also said the US would release oil from the SPR.

Joel Frank Independent Analyst

Oil markets saw the most intra-day volatility since in nearly three months on Thursday, with front-month WTI futures surging over $8.0 to above $100 for the first time since 2014, only to then drop all the way back to $93.00. The initial surge in crude oil prices was triggered as Russia launched a full-scale military assault on Ukraine during Thursday’s Asia Pacific session on fears that subsequent economic sanctions from the West would lead to global oil supply disruptions.

Analysts at UBS noted that Russia is the world’s third-largest producer and second-largest exporter of crude oil. “Given low inventories and dwindling spare capacity, the oil market cannot afford large supply disruptions” they said. But concerns about global supply disruption eased later in the session as it become clear that US and EU sanctions on Russia would not target its energy sector, resulting in the sharp pullback.

US President Joe Biden also said that the US would release oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves to ease supply shortage concerns, news which when combined with a larger than expected build in weekly US oil inventories, weighed on prices. Despite Thursday’s more than $9.0 intra-day swing, analysts largerly remained of the conviction that oil prices would remain well supported moving forward.

The Russia/Ukraine conflict will likely intensify in the coming days and tensions between Russia and NATO are set to remain at multi-decade highs, suggesting that the significant geopolitical risk premia that remain priced into crude oil likely isn't going anywhere anytime soon. One alternate theme for investors to watch is signs of further progress in nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran.

Iran’s top security official on Thursday was upbeat on the prospects of finding a good deal with Western powers following recent progress. A deal could see the US lift sanctions on Iranian exports that analysts have said could free up 1.3M barrels in supply to global markets.

WTI US oil

Overview
Today last price	92.84
Today Daily Change	0.92
Today Daily Change %	1.00
Today daily open	91.92

Trends
Daily SMA20	89.66
Daily SMA50	82.93
Daily SMA100	80.15
Daily SMA200	75.26

Levels
Previous Daily High	93.58
Previous Daily Low	90.39
Previous Weekly High	94.02
Previous Weekly Low	87.29
Previous Monthly High	88.22
Previous Monthly Low	74.12
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	92.36
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	91.61
Daily Pivot Point S1	90.35
Daily Pivot Point S2	88.77
Daily Pivot Point S3	87.16
Daily Pivot Point R1	93.54
Daily Pivot Point R2	95.15
Daily Pivot Point R3	96.73

Author

Joel Frank

Independent Analyst

Joel Frank is an economics graduate from the University of Birmingham and has worked as a full-time financial market analyst since 2018, specialising in the coverage of how developments in the global economy impact financial asset

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