WTI remains pressured towards $72.00, China GDP eyed

  • WTI stays depressed after posting the heaviest daily losses in over a week.
  • EIA inventories depleted more than expected, US dollar weakened.
  • Covid woes, reflation fears and Saudi-UAE deal weigh on energy prices.
  • Risk catalysts, DXY moves become the key to fresh impulse.

WTI oil prices keep the previous day’s downbeat performance, sluggish of late, near $72.30 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The energy benchmark could neither cheer stockpile draw nor weak US dollar as news of a deal between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over production weighed on the black gold.

Reuters cites an anonymous source to say "UAE will have a higher oil production baseline at 3.65 million barrels per day for future oil deals."  The output compromise between Saudi Arabia and the UAE (United Arab Emirates) removes short-term uncertainty over the OPEC+ production moves that recently propelled oil prices. Additionally, the coronavirus (COVID-19) variant woes and the uncertainty over US President Joe Biden’s stimulus add to the oil price weakness.

Hence, the WTI crude oil prices ignore higher than expected 4.359M draw of the stockpile, not to forget -6.866M prior, to -7.890M as per the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change for the period ended on July 09.

It’s worth noting that the commodity also failed to cheer the US dollar weakness, on the back of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish comments suggesting that a “lots of notice” would be given before adjusting the monetary policy in his bi-annual testimony.

Amid these plays, US stock futures struggle for a clear direction following the mixed closing of the Wall Street benchmarks. Further, the US Treasury yields also take a breather following the heaviest drop in a week.

Looking forward, China’s second-quarter (Q2) GDP, expected 1.2% QoQ versus 0.6% prior, will be the key as any deterioration in the output of the world’s biggest oil consumer could extend WTI’s latest weakness. Also crucial will be to observe the US dollar moves amid a light calendar in the US session.

Technical analysis

A daily closing below 21-DMA, around $73.15, directs WTI sellers toward a three-week-old rising trend line near $71.60.

Additional important levels

Today last price 72.33
Today Daily Change -2.37
Today Daily Change % -3.17%
Today daily open 74.7
Daily SMA20 73.14
Daily SMA50 69.38
Daily SMA100 65.76
Daily SMA200 56.57
Previous Daily High 74.95
Previous Daily Low 73.13
Previous Weekly High 76.4
Previous Weekly Low 70.28
Previous Monthly High 74.17
Previous Monthly Low 66.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 74.26
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 73.83
Daily Pivot Point S1 73.58
Daily Pivot Point S2 72.45
Daily Pivot Point S3 71.76
Daily Pivot Point R1 75.39
Daily Pivot Point R2 76.08
Daily Pivot Point R3 77.21



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