WTI remains depressed below $80.00 despite upbeat API data, EIA stockpiles eyed

WTI fails to cheer industry stockpiles data after a mixed daily performance.
Fears of increase in supply join expectations of tighter monetary policies to favor bears.
OPEC’s Barkindo expects oil market surplus beginning in December, IEA eyes easy prices.
US EIA inventory data, Fedspeak will provide fresh impulse.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

WTI begins Wednesday’s trading session on a back foot around $79.60, teasing the biggest daily loss in a week. In doing so, the oil benchmark ignores private oil stocks change figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) while tracking firmer USD and demand-supply matrix.

As per the latest API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks data for the period ended on November 12, the inventories rose 0.655M versus an expected addition of 1.55M and previous depletion of 2.485M.

It’s worth mentioning that the fresh fears of the coronavirus, mainly in Europe and the UK, challenge the oil bulls of late. On the same line is an absence of any chatters favoring supply disruptions and downbeat comments from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo.

The IEA left its forecast for oil demand growth largely unchanged at 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2021 and 3.4 million bpd in 2022, as reported by Reuters. However, the institute did mention that "Reprieve from oil price rally could be on the horizon due to rising supplies."

On the same line was the analysis from OPEC’s Barkindo who said, "The projections show throughout the quarters of next year that there could be oversupply in the market. This is also further evidence of why we should be very cautious, measured in the decisions we take every month."

Additionally, fears of tighter money supply and an absence of cordial relations between the US and China, despite the latest virtual meeting, join firmer US Retail Sales for October to underpin the US Dollar Index (DXY) strength around a fresh 16-month high.

Moving on, weekly official oil inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), expected +1.550M versus +1.001M previous readouts, will be important for fresh direction. Also on the radars will be the Fedspeak and demand-supply talks.

Technical analysis

Failures to cross the 10-DMA, around $80.30 at the latest, joins a sustained trading below three-week-old resistance line near $82.35, to direct WTI bears towards 50-DMA level of $77.95.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	79.6
Today Daily Change	-0.19
Today Daily Change %	-0.24%
Today daily open	79.79

Trends
Daily SMA20	81.7
Daily SMA50	77.51
Daily SMA100	73.7
Daily SMA200	68.95

Levels
Previous Daily High	80.09
Previous Daily Low	78.33
Previous Weekly High	83.59
Previous Weekly Low	78.77
Previous Monthly High	84.98
Previous Monthly Low	74.06
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	79.42
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	79
Daily Pivot Point S1	78.72
Daily Pivot Point S2	77.65
Daily Pivot Point S3	76.96
Daily Pivot Point R1	80.47
Daily Pivot Point R2	81.16
Daily Pivot Point R3	82.23

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI data

The British Pound is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran.

EUR/USD struggles above 1.1500 despite USD weakness

EUR/USD struggles with its recovery above 1.1500 in European trading on Monday, despite broad US Dollar weakness and improved risk sentiment. The USD loses traction following US President Trump's call off an attack on Iran and that talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations and US ISM PMI data.

Gold extends range play below $4,100 as rebounding USD meets receding Fed hike bets

Gold struggles to capitalize on a modest weekly bullish gap opening, and remains below the $4,100 mark heading into the European session. The US Dollar stages a modest recovery from its lowest level since June 17, which is seen capping the upside for the commodity. The upside for the USD, however, seems limited amid renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and receding US Fed rate-hike expectations.

Week ahead: US payrolls report and AI earnings to keep investors on edge

After the Fed decision, NFP report awaited for more rate hike clues. Employment also on the agenda in Canada and New Zealand. Chinese trade and Japanese wage data to be watched too. But Iran and AI headlines to remain in driver’s seat for risk sentiment.

Solana risks a steeper decline below $70 despite steady ETF inflows

Solana (SOL) is trading in the red, losing bullish momentum and remaining capped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $75.68. SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds show resilience with a monthly inflow of $14.62 million in July, while the near-term retail support wanes with the funding rate turning negative.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.