WTI Price Forecast: Oil claws back above $63 after hitting a two-week low, OPEC+ meeting in focus
- WTI trimms losses after hitting a two-week low near $62.50 earlier on Thursday.
- Market focus shifts to the OPEC+ meeting on September 7 to debate potential October output hikes.
- Bearish momentum dominates as WTI trades below its 21 and 100-period SMAs.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil recovers on Thursday after sliding to its lowest level since August 21, near $62.50 earlier in the day. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $63.30 during the American session, paring intraday losses and signaling a modest rebound, though the US benchmark remains under pressure following a sharp midweek sell-off.
The downturn comes ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting on Sunday, September 7, where the alliance is expected to debate further output hikes for October, a move that could deepen oversupply concerns in an already seasonally weak demand period. Bearish sentiment is further reinforced by the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) data released on Wednesday, which showed an unexpected 622,000-barrel build in U.S. crude stocks for the week ending August 29, against forecasts of a 2-million-barrel draw. Together with easing consumption after the summer driving season and ongoing global growth worries, these factors keep WTI under pressure despite the modest intraday rebound.
From a technical perspective, WTI Crude Oil is trading just above a critical support area after a sustained two-day decline. The 4-hour chart shows prices briefly testing the $62.50 horizontal support, the lowest level since August 21, before edging back toward $63.00. This zone has emerged as a decisive battleground. If prices hold above this zone, it could provide scope for a short-term recovery, while a confirmed break lower would likely accelerate bearish momentum toward the $61.50-$61.00 region.
On the upside, immediate resistance aligns with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $63.35, followed by the 21-period SMA near $64.30, creating a confluence barrier that limits recovery attempts. WTI remains below both moving averages, underscoring persistent selling pressure and highlighting the inability of bulls to reclaim lost ground.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 37, not yet oversold but clearly skewed to the downside, suggesting sellers remain firmly in control. This leaves scope for further declines before corrective buying emerges, although any rebound toward the $64.00-$64.50 zone is likely to encounter heavy resistance.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Vishal Chaturvedi
FXStreet
I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.
