WTI Price Forecast: Momentum stabilizes but upside remains limited
- WTI edges higher on Thursday as traders turn cautious ahead of the US sanction deadline on two Russian Oil firms.
- Technical outlook stays bearish with WTI trading below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs and sellers defending the $61.50-$62.00 region.
- Momentum indicators show mild improvement, with RSI steady and MACD turning slightly higher.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude steadies on Thursday after falling more than 2% on the previous day, as market sentiment turns cautious ahead of the US sanction deadline on two major Russian oil firms. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $59.70, up nearly 0.70% on the day.
Traders are treading carefully, with the upcoming cutoff seen as a potential near-term supply risk, even as broader concerns around oversupply and a fragile demand outlook continue to cap the upside.
From a technical perspective, WTI’s near-term setup continues to lean bearish, with the price holding below both the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The repeated failed attempt to climb above the $61.50-$62.00 region highlights persistent selling pressure. This area also aligns closely with the 50-day SMA, making it an important barrier for any meaningful recovery attempt.
On the upside, a daily close above the $61.50-$62.00 region would be required to improve short-term momentum. A breakout above this zone could open the path toward the 100-day SMA near $62.70.
On the downside, immediate support is located at last week’s low near $58.12. A sustained drop below this level could trigger renewed selling pressure, exposing the October 22 low at $57.31, followed by the October swing low around $56.00.
Momentum indicators are showing early signs of stabilization. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 48 is neutral, and a move above 50 would help strengthen the near-term tone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is edging back above the zero line, with the MACD line close to the signal line and a shallow positive histogram that hints at fading downside pressure.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Vishal Chaturvedi
FXStreet
I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.
