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WTI drops below $54 on resurfacing recession fears

  • Manufacturing activity shrinks in US for first time since early January 2016.
  • Risk-off flows weigh on crude oil on Tuesday.
  • US President Trump urges China not to wait until 2020 elections to strike a deal.

Crude oil prices came under strong selling pressure on Tuesday as the disappointing data from the US revived concerns over a recession and its potential negative impact on the global growth, which is expected to weigh on the energy demand.

After closing the previous day with a small 0.45% loss, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate today dropped to its lowest level in more than three weeks at $52.82 before staging a modest rebound. As of writing, the WTI was down 1.45% on the day at $53.98. 

PMI data raises growth concerns 

Earlier today, the data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in more than three years with the headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slumping to 49.1 from 51.2 in July. "Respondents expressed slightly more concern about U.S.-China trade turbulence, but trade remains the most significant issue, indicated by the strong contraction in new export orders," the ISM said in its publication.

Furthermore, the IHS Markit's Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 to surpass the market expectation of 49.9, it still posted its lowest reading since September 2009 to reaffirm the loss of momentum in the sector. 

In the meantime, US President Donald Trump said that they were doing very well in the trade negotiations with China but warned China that the deal would get "much tougher" if they decide to wait to see the outcome of the 2020 election.

The weekly American Petroleum Institue (API) crude oil stock report, which is released on Tuesday under normal circumstances, will be published tomorrow ahead of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) oil market report on Thursday.

Technical levels to watch for

WTI

Overview
Today last price53.89
Today Daily Change-0.73
Today Daily Change %-1.34
Today daily open54.62
 
Trends
Daily SMA2054.85
Daily SMA5056.45
Daily SMA10057.93
Daily SMA20056.27
Levels
Previous Daily High55.12
Previous Daily Low54.23
Previous Weekly High56.76
Previous Weekly Low52.94
Previous Monthly High58.02
Previous Monthly Low50.51
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%54.57
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%54.78
Daily Pivot Point S154.19
Daily Pivot Point S253.77
Daily Pivot Point S353.3
Daily Pivot Point R155.08
Daily Pivot Point R255.55
Daily Pivot Point R355.97

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

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