James Smith – Developed Markets Economist at ING – offered his take on Saturday's parliamentary vote on Prime Minister Johnson's Brexit deal and reckons that the government may be just two votes short of winning.
Key Quotes:
We know the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will not vote for the deal, at least as things stand. And conventional wisdom suggests that without the DUP, many pro-Brexit Conservative MPs (from the European Research Group, or ERG) won't back the deal either.
But that no longer appears to be the case. Buzzfeed reckons 10 out of 28 ERG MPs would not vote for the deal, although many others are keeping their cards close to their chest – former Conservative leader Ian Duncan-Smith has signalled concerns.
It also looks like the anti-‘no deal’ MPs who were ousted from the Conservative Party a few weeks ago - with the exception of those that didn’t vote for Mrs May’s deal - will also back the agreement.
That probably means everything will hinge on Labour. Five of their MPs voted for Mrs May’s deal back in March, and it looks like they will be joined by a sixth. But that would still leave the government a few votes short – and more opposition lawmakers will be needed to get the deal over the line.
Many Labour MPs will still be wary – and if nothing else, voting for the deal could theoretically help hand Johnson a better election victory.
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