Morgan Stanley expects a sharp contraction in corporate earnings to weigh on US equities this year, and it sees the S&P500 lower at 3,900 by year-end. However, Goldman Sachs are expecting mild growth from the S&P500 this year. So, with the path of inflation unknown, analysts are divided on whether the Fed will hike in June, skip a meeting, or pause rates. Furthermore, global growth prospects are also in the balance, so the path for US stocks in June is far from clear.

So, let’s see what the S&P500 is like from a seasonal perspective.

Over the last 15 years, the S&P500 has lost value 60% of the time between June 1 and June 30. The S&P500 has seen an average fall of -0.43%, with the largest fall of -7.70% last year.

So, with a potentially weak seasonal period ahead, traders should note that a sudden bearish policy shift from the Fed on June 14, could see stocks fall lower in line with their weaker summer seasonal pattern.

Major Trade Risks: The major near-term trade risk here is if inflation cools suddenly and the Fed announces a rate pause when they meet on June 14.


Learn more about HYCM

Share: Feed news

Our products and commentary provides general advice that do not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD defends 1.0800 amid risk-aversion

EUR/USD defends 1.0800 amid risk-aversion

EUR/USD is holding ground above 1.0800 in European trading on Friday. The pair, however, stays undermined by the recent strength in the US Dollar on strong US PMI data and hawkish Fed expectations. Mid-tier US data and Fedspeak are next on tap. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD recovers to 1.2700 after downbeat UK Retail Sales-led dip

GBP/USD recovers to 1.2700 after downbeat UK Retail Sales-led dip

GBP/USD is trading close to 1.2700 in the European session on Friday, recovery ground after a brief dip, fuelled by a bigger-than-expected decline in the UK Retail Sales data for April. The pair remains on a corrective decline from two-month highs of 1.2761 on resurgent US Dollar demand. 

GBP/USD News

Gold puts in a floor on mounting geopolitical concerns

Gold puts in a floor on mounting geopolitical concerns

Gold puts in a temporary floor under the recent sell-off on Friday, trading a quarter of a percent higher at around the $2,330s, as a combination of market and geopolitical concerns lead investors to seek solace in its safe-haven qualities. 

Gold News

Why is Pepe meme coin rallying? What’s next after PEPE’s ATH? Premium

Why is Pepe meme coin rallying? What’s next after PEPE’s ATH?

Pepe price shows signs of continuing its uptrend, but it might come after a correction. This short-term pullback could be used by sidelined buyers to accumulate PEPE for the next leg up. 

Read more

Waning reflation appetite?

Waning reflation appetite?

The week hasn’t been pleasant for the market bulls. On Wednesday, the FOMC minutes showed the disturbing truth that ‘many’ Fed members wondered whether keeping the rates ‘high for longer’ was sufficiently restrictive to tame inflation.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures