Where is the S&P 500 headed for June? [Video]
![Where is the S&P 500 headed for June? [Video]](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Markets/Equities/SP500/wall_street_nyse3-637299021683820849_XtraLarge.jpg)
Morgan Stanley expects a sharp contraction in corporate earnings to weigh on US equities this year, and it sees the S&P500 lower at 3,900 by year-end. However, Goldman Sachs are expecting mild growth from the S&P500 this year. So, with the path of inflation unknown, analysts are divided on whether the Fed will hike in June, skip a meeting, or pause rates. Furthermore, global growth prospects are also in the balance, so the path for US stocks in June is far from clear.
So, let’s see what the S&P500 is like from a seasonal perspective.
Over the last 15 years, the S&P500 has lost value 60% of the time between June 1 and June 30. The S&P500 has seen an average fall of -0.43%, with the largest fall of -7.70% last year.
So, with a potentially weak seasonal period ahead, traders should note that a sudden bearish policy shift from the Fed on June 14, could see stocks fall lower in line with their weaker summer seasonal pattern.
Major Trade Risks: The major near-term trade risk here is if inflation cools suddenly and the Fed announces a rate pause when they meet on June 14.
Author
Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
Giles is the chief market analyst for Financial Source. His goal is to help you find simple, high-conviction fundamental trade opportunities. He has regular media presentations being featured in National and International Press.
