When is UK services PMI and how could it affect GBP/USD?

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

UK services PMI overview

The UK economy will release its May services PMI later in the European session at 0830GMT, which is forecast to drop to 55.0 from April’s 55.8.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 50 pips in deviations up to 2.5 to -2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 70 pips.

How could affect GBP/USD?

Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet notes: “On the economic data front, the release of UK services PMI would again be largely ignored as traders shrugged off last week’s upbeat PMI prints (manufacturing and construction PMIs). Weakness below an immediate support near mid-1.2800s could get extended towards an important confluence support near 1.2770 area, comprising of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2365 to 1.3047 latest up-move and 50-day SMA region. The said support also coincides with a previous major resistance and hence, is the pair is unlikely to break the same in a hurry.”

“Alternatively, any up-move might continue to confront immediate resistance near the 1.2900 handle, closely followed by a strong hurdle near 1.2915-20 region (20-day SMA). On a sustained break through this important barrier, the pair is likely to aim towards 1.2965-70 horizontal resistance en-route the key 1.30 psychological mark,” Haresh adds.

Key notes

GBP/USD - Is UK services PMI a non-event?

“The odds are high that the improvement in manufacturing and construction activity may have boosted the demand for services, “Omkar – Analyst at FXStreet noted.

About UK services PMI

The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the UK service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does. Traders want the highest possible reading as that will be taken as positive for the GBP. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, Jun 05
24h	DKK Whit monday
24h	EUR Holy Spirit Monday
24h	EUR Whit monday
24h	NOK Whit monday
00:30	HKD Nikkei Manufacturing PMI	50.5		51.1
01:00	AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY)	2.8%		2.6%
01:00	AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM)	0.0%		0.5%
01:30	AUD ANZ Job Advertisements	0.4%		1.5% Revised from 1.4%
01:30	AUD Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)	6.0%		20.1%
01:45	CNY Caixin China Services PMI	52.8		51.5
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (YoY)			16.37%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (YoY)			11.87%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.35%	1.31%
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.76%
07:15	EUR Markit Services PMI		57.5	57.8
07:45	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.4	56.2
07:50	EUR Markit PMI Composite		57.6	57.6
07:50	EUR Markit Services PMI		58	58
07:55	EUR Markit Services PMI		55.2	55.2
07:55	EUR Markit PMI Composite		57.3	57.3
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI		56.2	56.2
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite		56.8	56.8
08:30	GBP Markit Services PMI		55.0	55.8
12:30	USD Nonfarm Productivity		-0.2%	-0.6%
12:30	USD Unit Labor Costs		2.5%	3.0%
12:30	CLP IMACEC			0.2%
13:00	MXN Consumer Confidence			83.8
13:00	MXN Consumer Confidence s.a			84.3
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI			54
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			53.9
14:00	USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		57.0	57.5
14:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		-0.2%	0.2%
14:05	USD Labor Market Conditions Index			3.5
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			0.96%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.06%
21:00	KRW FX Reserves			376.57B
23:01	GBP BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales (YoY)			5.6%
Tuesday, Jun 06
24h	KRW Memorial Day
00:00	COP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.30%	0.47%
00:00	COP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		4.44%	4.66%
00:00	JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)			-0.4%
24h	SEK National Day
01:00	NZD ANZ Commodity Price			-0.2%
01:30	AUD Current Account Balance		0.0B	-3.9B
04:30	AUD RBA Rate Statement
04:30	AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision		1.5%	1.5%
07:00	HUF Retail Sales (YoY)			5.6%
07:00	CZK Retail Sales (YoY)			7.8%
08:30	EUR Sentix Investor Confidence		27.5	27.4
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)		2.3%	2.3%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)		0.2%	0.3%
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.548%
09:30	ZAR Business Confidence Index			94.9
n/a	GBP 30-y Bond Auction			1.787%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1.1%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			1.8%
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index			3.2%
13:00	RUB Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
14:00	USD JOLTS Job Openings			5.743M
14:00	USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM)			51.3
14:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a			62.4
14:00	CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index			58.5
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.84%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-8.67M
22:45	NZD Manufacturing sales			-1.8%
23:30	AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index			51.9
23:50	JPY JP Foreign Reserves			$1,242.3B
Wednesday, Jun 07
01:30	AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		1.7%	2.4%
01:30	AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.2%	1.1%
n/a	CNY Foreign Exchange Reserves (MoM)			¥3.03T
05:00	JPY Coincident Index			114.4
05:00	JPY Leading Economic Index			105.5
05:30	INR RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate)			6.25%
06:00	EUR Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)		-0.4%	1.0%
06:00	EUR Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)			2.4%
06:00	ZAR Net $Gold & Forex Reserve			$41.73B
06:00	ZAR Gross $Gold & Forex Reserve			$46.69B
06:00	INR Cash Reserve Ratio			4%
06:00	INR Reverse Repo Rate			6%
06:00	EUR Trade Balance			€-0.01B
07:00	EUR Industrial Output Cal Adjusted (YoY)		1.2%	0.4%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (YoY)			5.7%
07:00	EUR Wholesale Prices n.s.a (MoM)			0.8%
07:00	HUF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			4.1%
07:00	CZK Industrial Production (YoY)			10.9%
07:00	CZK Construction output (YoY)			6.2%
07:00	CHF Foreign Currency Reserves			696B
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (MoM)		-0.1%	-0.1%
07:30	GBP Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY)		3.0%	3.8%
07:30	SEK Industrial Production (YoY)			3.8%
07:30	SEK New Orders Manufacturing (YoY)			13.4%
08:00	EUR Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)			0%
08:00	EUR Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY)			-0.4%
08:00	CZK FX Reserves			€124.46B
09:00	SGD Foreign Reserves (MoM)			260.7B
09:00	HUF Budget Balance			76.6B
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.5%	0.5%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		1.7%	1.7%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-3.4%
11:30	CLP Trade Balance			$507M
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			7.8%
12:30	CAD Building Permits (MoM)			-5.8%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-6.428M
14:30	TRY Treasury Cash Balance			-3.61B
19:00	USD Consumer Credit Change		$15.50B	$16.43B
23:01	GBP RICS Housing Price Balance			22%
23:50	JPY Bank lending (YoY)			3%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY)			-0.8%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized		2.4%	2.2%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.6%	0.5%
23:50	JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY)			4.3%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥732.1B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥129.6B
23:50	JPY Current Account n.s.a.		¥1,698.8B	¥2,907.7B
23:50	JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis			¥865.5B
Thursday, Jun 08
24h	GBP Parliamentary Election
01:30	AUD Exports			2%
01:30	AUD Imports			5%
01:30	AUD Trade Balance		1,900M	3,107M
02:30	CNY Imports (YoY)			11.9%
02:30	CNY Trade Balance CNY			262.3B
02:30	CNY Imports (YoY) CNY			18.6%
02:30	CNY Trade Balance USD			$38.05B
02:30	CNY Exports (YoY) CNY			14.3%
02:30	CNY Exports (YoY)			8%
04:30	EUR Consumer Price Index n.s.a (YoY)			1.6%
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook			48.8
05:00	JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current			48.1
05:45	CHF Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM)			3.3%
06:00	EUR Industrial Production n.s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)			1.9%
06:00	EUR Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		0.5%	-0.4%
n/a	NOK Manufacturing Output			-1.1%
06:45	EUR Exports, EUR			€39.3B
06:45	EUR Trade Balance EUR			€-5.353B
06:45	EUR Imports, EUR			€44.6B
06:45	EUR Current Account			€-3B
07:15	CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.3%	0.4%
07:15	CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	0.2%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate (MoM)			23.2%
11:45	EUR ECB Deposit Rate Decision		-0.4%	-0.4%
11:45	EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision		0%	0%
12:15	CAD Housing Starts s.a (YoY)			214.1K
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		240K	248K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.920M	1.915M
12:30	EUR ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY)			3.3%
12:30	CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			81B
14:30	CAD Financial System Review
Friday, Jun 09
01:30	CNY Producer Price Index (YoY)			6.4%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.1%
01:30	CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.2%
01:30	AUD Investment Lending for Homes			0.8%
01:30	AUD Home Loans		-1.0%	-0.5%
04:30	JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)			-0.2%
06:00	EUR Imports (MoM)		-1.0%	2.4%
06:00	EUR Exports (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
06:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.		€20.5B	€19.6B
06:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a.			€30.2B
06:45	EUR Industrial Output (MoM)		0.3%	2.0%
06:45	EUR Budget			€-29.6B
08:00	DKK Current Account			17.6B
08:30	GBP Consumer Inflation Expectations			2.9%
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)		0.9%	-0.6%
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (MoM)		0.8%	-0.5%
08:30	GBP Industrial Production (YoY)		-0.2%	1.4%
08:30	GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY)		0.7%	2.3%
08:30	GBP Goods Trade Balance		£-12.000B	£-13.441B
08:30	GBP Total Trade Balance			£-4.9B
08:30	GBP Trade Balance; non-EU			£-4.674B
n/a	EUR Industrial Production (YoY)			8.7%
n/a	EUR Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)		1.4%	1.6%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
n/a	EUR Global Trade Balance			€-2.59B
n/a	INR FX Reserves, USD			$378.76B
12:30	USD Wholesale Inventories		0.2%	-0.3%
12:30	CAD Capacity Utilization			82.2%
12:30	CAD Unemployment Rate			6.5%
12:30	CAD Net Change in Employment			3.2K
12:30	CAD Participation rate			65.6%
13:00	GBP NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)			0.2%
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			733
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$167.1K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			373.8K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$56.1K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-29.7K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-52.3K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€72.9K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$3.1K
Saturday, Jun 10
24h	EUR Portugal Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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