US June CPI Overview
Thursday's US economic docket highlights the release of latest consumer inflation data and is due for release later during the early North-American session, at 1230GMT. The headline CPI is expected to have risen by 0.2% m/m in June, with the yearly rate ticking higher to 2.9% from the previous month's reading of 2.8%. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is also expected to have risen 0.2% m/m, lifting the yearly rate to 2.3% as compared to 2.2% recorded in May.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below and as observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of +0.98 to -1.25 in the core CPI print is likely to be in the range of 24-26 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to around 68-71 pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst explains: “1.1665 was the low point on July 11th. The next level to watch is 1.1630 that provided support to the pair on July 4th. 1.1590 was a low point on July 2nd. 1.1508 is the 2018 low.”
“1.1690 is a level of resistance after working as such back on July 10th. 1.1720 was a double-top in late June and also in early July1.1795 capped the pair on July 9th. 1.1850 was the June 14th high,” he adds further.
Key Notes
• US: CPI to rise 0.2% in June, unlikely to sway Fed views to the more hawkish side - TDS
• How to trade the US Consumer Sentiment with EUR/USD
About the US CPI
The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
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