US June CPI Overview
Thursday's US economic docket highlights the release of latest consumer inflation data and is due for release later during the early North-American session, at 1230GMT. The headline CPI is expected to have risen by 0.2% m/m in June, with the yearly rate ticking higher to 2.9% from the previous month's reading of 2.8%. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is also expected to have risen 0.2% m/m, lifting the yearly rate to 2.3% as compared to 2.2% recorded in May.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below and as observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of +0.98 to -1.25 in the core CPI print is likely to be in the range of 24-26 pips during the first 15-minutes and could stretch to around 68-71 pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst explains: “1.1665 was the low point on July 11th. The next level to watch is 1.1630 that provided support to the pair on July 4th. 1.1590 was a low point on July 2nd. 1.1508 is the 2018 low.”
“1.1690 is a level of resistance after working as such back on July 10th. 1.1720 was a double-top in late June and also in early July1.1795 capped the pair on July 9th. 1.1850 was the June 14th high,” he adds further.
About the US CPI
The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
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