How to trade the US Consumer Sentiment with EUR/USD

  • The UoM Consumer Sentiment Index provides an early insight on spending and moves markets.
  • The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
  • The EURUSD moved, on average, 10 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 35 pips in the following 4 hours

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.67 deviation (99.30 ) [BUY Pair]

  • Key Resistance Level: 1.1590

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.67 or higher(99.30 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 20  pips in the first 15 minutes and 66 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1665 was the low point on July 11th. The next level to watch is 1.1630 that provided support to the pair on July 4th. 1.1590 was a low point on July 2nd. 1.1508 is the 2018 low.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.74 deviation (97.60 ) [SELL Pair]

    Key Support Level: 1.1795

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.74 or less(97.60 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 18 pips in the first 15 minutes and 63 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1690 is a level of resistance after working as such back on July 10th. 1.1720 was a double-top in late June and also in early July1.1795 capped the pair on July 9th. 1.1850 was the June 14th high.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

EUR USD technical analysis July 12 2018

 

More data

The University of Michigan's preliminary version of consumer sentiment provides a heads up for retail sales in the current month. The preliminary release has a bigger impact than the revision.

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 10 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 35 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative*surprise of -0.75 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached an 11 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 23 pips 4 hours thereafter. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

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