USD/JPY: Policy focus tempers safe haven appeal – DBS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

DBS's Chang Wei Liang note USD/JPY has moved above 155 on broad Dollar strength, even as geopolitical risks could support the Japanese Yen as a safe haven. Japan’s FY26 budget debate and Prime Minister Takaichi’s proposal to suspend the consumption tax on food are seen as key for JPY direction. The IMF’s guidance on tax policy and BOJ rate hikes may delay sustained JPY strength.

Fiscal debate and BOJ path guide Yen

"US-Iran tensions have re-escalated, with Trump warning of a strike on Iran in the next 10 days without a deal, and Iran threatening that all bases and assets of hostile forces would be legitimate targets if attacked."

"CHF and JPY could see safe haven bids if there are risks of a sustained conflict in the Middle East."

"Japan’s FY26 budget will be deliberated soon, and PM Takaichi said on Wednesday that she will accelerate talks on suspending the consumption tax on food for two years."

"JPY strength could await more fiscal policy clarity, with the IMF now urging Japan to avoid reducing the consumption tax in view of an expected rise in debt servicing and welfare costs."

"It also expects the BOJ to raise its policy rate twice this year, seeing a neutral rate of 1.5% for Japan."

"Japan reported today that headline inflation has eased to 1.5% y/y for Jan (Dec:2.1%), but core-core CPI inflation remains elevated at 2.6% y/y, suggesting that broader price pressures have not dissipated."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold remains vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold is under mild selling pressure on Monday, trading at around $4,170. The US Dollar advances modestly in thin trading, supported by bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates at least one more time before year-end.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?