The German Prelim CPI Overview
The German inflation data is up for release later this session at 1200 GMT, with the CPI figures expected to ease further 0.0% m/m in April, while steadying at 1.5% annually.
Germany's regional CPIs released earlier today point to a sluggish outcome of the harmonized German CPI report due to be reported later today. North Rhine Westphalia inflation for the month of April MoM came in at 0.0% versus +0.4% prev. In Hesse, MoM arrived at 0.0%, versus +0.4% prev. Meanwhile, in Bavaria MoM also ticked lower to -0.1%, versus +0.5% last. In Saxony, April inflation MoM stood at 0.0% versus +0.4% previous, while Baden-Wuerttemberg’s came in at MoM 0.0% vs. +0.4% prior.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “the pair last week confirmed a bearish breakthrough 100-day SMA support and over the 3-month old trading range. Hence, any recovery attempts might now confront fresh supply at the trading range support break-point, now turned resistance, near the 1.2155 horizontal zone. Subsequent up-move beyond the mentioned hurdle should now be capped at the 1.2200 handle.”
“On the downside, weakness back below the 1.2100 round figure mark would reaffirm the bearish bias and accelerate the fall back towards the 1.2055-50 support. A follow-through selling pressure has the potential to continue dragging the pair further towards the key 1.20 psychological mark, also coinciding with the very important 200-day SMA, en-route its next support near the 1.1935 region,” Haresh adds.
Key Notes
German and US inflation figures amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
EUR/USD Forecast: New week, new weak EZ data, new USD strength
Market movers for the week ahead - Rabobank
About the German Prelim CPI
The Germany consumer price index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).
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