Aussie Trade Balance overview
Early Thursday at 00:30 GMT sees September's Australian Trade Balance data, with the headline figure forecast to improve to $1.7 billion (previous $1.604 billion). Pacific-Asia traders will be hoping for an as-expected or better showing, if not to spur the AUD/USD into an outright bull-move, then to at least keep the wheels on the cart as the Aussie continues to meander dangerously close to the year's lows.
Looking further into the trade figures, Australia's Imports clocked in at 0% for August, with Exports struggling to remain on-balance, seeing only 1% in the previous month, and investors will be hoping for an improved showing in both figures to drive a stabilized reading for the Trade Balance headline.
Further complicating the picture is China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI, due roughly an hour after Australia's trade numbers, and with markets forecasting a bearish dip to 49.9 for China's industrial figure (previous 50.0), any bullish momentum garnered from positive Aussie trade data could easily vanish if China bucks the day's momentum by showing a contraction in manufacturing.
How could it affect the AUD/USD?
The AUD/USD heads into Thursday's trade data notably off-kilter, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the AUD/USD pair offers a neutral-to-bearish stance in its 4 hours chart, as its now developing below its 20 and 100 SMA, both lacking directional strength, as technical indicators turn modestly lower still around their midlines. Below 0.7040, the pair has room to test the 0.7000 figure, a tough level to break, moreover considering equities' strength. To the upside, the key is the 0.7120 region as the pair set weekly highs around it for a second consecutive week."
Support levels: 0.7040 0.7000 0.6970
Resistance levels: 0.7090 0.7120 0.7155
Key notes
Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance
AUD/USD analysis: Chinese manufacturing seen falling into contraction, bad news for AUD
About the Australian Trade Balance
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
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