When is German GDP data and how could it affect EUR/USD?

German GDP overview

German gross domestic product (GDP) due at 06:00 GMT is expected to show the economy contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in April to June period, having expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter.

The annualized GDP is forecasted to print at -0.3%, down from the previous quarter's reading of 0.6%.

German bond market is pointing to a recession

The entire German yield curve has entered the negative territory for the first time on record. Put simply, German government bonds are offering negative returns at both short and end long end of the curve.

Further, the yield curve has inverted with the 10-year yield trading below the 3-month yield. Curve inversion is widely considered a sign of recession.

So, a negative GDP print won't be a surprise but may end up strengthening the bearish pressures around the EUR as the key figure is scheduled for release a day after the forward-looking ZEW surveys pointed to a significant deterioration in the outlook for the German economy.

Notably, at -44.1, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August was the worst figure since May 2010.

With the forward-looking indicators painting a gloomy picture due to the recent escalation of trade tension, the path of least resistance for the EUR appears to be on the downside.

On technical charts, the pair is looking heavy, having faced rejection above 1.1220 in the previous six trading days and could drop to 1.11 on weak German GDP

About German GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish). 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD hovers around 1.0850 ahead of Eurogroup meeting, US data

EUR/USD is trading around 1.0850 as tensions mount ahead of the Eurogroup meetings which have previously ended in acrimony. US jobless claims, consumer confidence, and Fed Chair Powell's speech are all eyed. 


GBP/USD trades around 1.24 after as Johnson's condition, US data eyed

GBP/USD is trading around 1.24, consolidating its gains as UK monthly GDP disappoints with -0.1% in February. PM Johnson's condition is stable, but he remains in intensive care. US jobless claims, consumer confidence, and Powell's speech are awaited.


Crypto market shifting to the hyperspace

The typical pattern expects the participation of second-line Altcoins, such as Litecoin or Ethereum Classic. The current phase can cause occasional periods with a strong increase in volatility. The bulls have the advantage over the bears, but they don't yet have market control.

Read more

WTI consolidates the upside near $26 amid imminent OPEC+ output cuts

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) is consolidating the advance to a new two-day high of 26.66, as the bulls take a breather the recent bounce back from near 25.60 region. At the press time, the US oil trades at 26.05, still up 3.80% so far.

Oil News

Gold: Recovery rally weakens demand for put options

Gold has gained significant ground over the last couple of weeks. The yellow metal bottomed out near $1,515 on March 20 and was last seen trading near $1,650 per ounce, representing a 0.38% gain on the day. Prices hit a high of $1,678 on Tuesday. 

Gold News