When is German GDP data and how could it affect EUR/USD?

German GDP overview

German gross domestic product (GDP) due at 06:00 GMT is expected to show the economy contracted 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in April to June period, having expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter.

The annualized GDP is forecasted to print at -0.3%, down from the previous quarter's reading of 0.6%.

German bond market is pointing to a recession

The entire German yield curve has entered the negative territory for the first time on record. Put simply, German government bonds are offering negative returns at both short and end long end of the curve.

Further, the yield curve has inverted with the 10-year yield trading below the 3-month yield. Curve inversion is widely considered a sign of recession.

So, a negative GDP print won't be a surprise but may end up strengthening the bearish pressures around the EUR as the key figure is scheduled for release a day after the forward-looking ZEW surveys pointed to a significant deterioration in the outlook for the German economy.

Notably, at -44.1, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for August was the worst figure since May 2010.

With the forward-looking indicators painting a gloomy picture due to the recent escalation of trade tension, the path of least resistance for the EUR appears to be on the downside.

On technical charts, the pair is looking heavy, having faced rejection above 1.1220 in the previous six trading days and could drop to 1.11 on weak German GDP

About German GDP

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish). 


Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

GBP/USD extends gains toward 1.31 after upbeat UK wage figures

GBP/USD is extending its gains and advancing toward 1.31 after UK wage figures beat expectations with 3.2% annually. The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in November. 


EUR/USD recaptures 1.11 amid upbeat German figures, USD weakness

EUR/USD is trading above 1.11 after the German ZEW Economic Sentiment beat with 26.7 points. Presidents Trump and Macron agreed not to slap tariffs on each others' countries. The US dollar is retreating.


Market delays the trip to the moon

The crypto markets continue to turn to a new bullish phase. This turnaround began at the beginning of the year after a consolidation phase that started in mid-2019. 

Read more

Gold retreats from 2-week tops, drifts into negative territory

Gold failed to capitalize on its early uptick to near two-week tops and dropped to fresh session lows, around the $1560 region in the last hour.

Gold News

USD/JPY: Weaker near 110.00 amid China virus fears, BOJ's status-quo

The Japanese yen retains the bid tone following the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) status-quo, keeping USD/JPY under pressure near the 110 level amid risk-off market profile. S&P 500 futures drop 0.40% while the US Treasury yields are down over 1.50%, as the sentiment is hit by the coronavirus outbreak.