US monthly retail sales overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures, scheduled at 13:30 GMT. Adding to the previous month's stronger-than-expected 0.3% increase, consensus estimates point a yet another solid growth of 0.5% for November. Sales excluding automobiles (core retail sales) are seen rising by 0.4% during the reported month as compared to 0.2% growth recorded in October. Meanwhile, the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to match the previous month's reading and come in to show a rise of 0.3% in November.
As Joseph Trevisani, Senior Analyst at FXStreet explains: “The labor market should continue to fund a healthy consumer sector. Jobs, wages and unemployment have given households every reason to be expansive heading into the holiday season. If the two long-running problems for the global economy, Brexit and the China trade war are settled, or at least removed as a source of overriding concern, expect even more out of the US consumer.”
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet's own Chief Analyst provided important technical levels to trade the EUR/USD pair: “The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that, for the EUR/USD pair, the path is clear to the upside as there’s only a medium relevant resistance at around 1.1220, where it bottomed in 2018. Around the level, there are other significant indicators that reinforce the area. Nevertheless, and once clear there’s nothing in the way toward the 1.1300/10 price zone.”
“Things are a bit more complicated for bears, with intraday highs and the 20 DMA at around 1.1150, providing an immediate support. A stronger one comes at 1.1120, where the pair topped in the previous week, and also has the 23.6% retracement of the October rally. Once below this last, 1.1065 is the next relevant level, although chances of a slide toward this last are limited.”
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales November Preview: Forward consumers
• US retail sales amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
• EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Trims a part of early strong gains to 4-month tops
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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