US monthly retail sales overview
Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for August, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following the previous month's solid figures, consensus estimates point to a deceleration in growth during the reported month. The headline sales are predicted to rise a modest 0.2% in August as compared to 0.7% growth recorded in July and sales excluding automobiles are seen ticking higher by 0.1%, down sharply from the previous month's strong reading of 1.0%. Meanwhile, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to rise by 0.3% following July's upbeat 1.0% growth.
As Joseph Trevisani, FXStreet's own analyst explains - "The basics of the consumer economy are still excellent. Jobs, wages and inflation are aligned as they have rarely been in a generation. This does not mean that issues from the China trade war to the partisan political bickering in Washington are unimportant to consumers. It is that when household spending decisions are made it is the bottom line that matters most. Retail sales may slip in August after five strong months, but, like consumer sentiment, it is unlikely they retreated very far."
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own analyst offered his view on the EUR/USD pair and also provided important technical levels to trade the major - "1.1095 is critical resistance as it is the confluence of the 200 SMA and a level that worked as both support and resistance in late August. Further up, 1.1115 capped EUR/USD late August and also earlier. Next, 1.1165 provided support in early August and was a swing high later that month. 1.1240 and 1.1285 are next."
"Support awaits at 1.1070, which provided support in mid-August. It is followed by 1.1030, which was a swing low in early August and also provided support last week. Below the round number of 1.10, we find 1.0960 that was a swing low in late in August, before the double-bottom of 1.0927 – also the 2019 low," he added further.
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales Preview: Consumer confidence equals sales
• EUR/USD Forecast: Looks bullish as Trump and Draghi are close to surrendering
• EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Initial resistance emerged at the 3-month resistance line above 1.1100
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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