When are US monthly retail sales figures and how could they affect EUR/USD?


US monthly retail sales overview

Friday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of May, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following the previous month's dismal figures, consensus estimates point to a modest rebound during the reported month. The headline sales are predicted to rise 0.2% on a monthly basis as compared to April's reading of -0.2%, and sales excluding automobiles are seen ticking higher by 0.3% as against 0.1% previous. Meanwhile, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is expected to rise 0.4% after a flat reading in April.

However, analysts at Wells Fargo expect a 0.7% increase in retail sales headline and explained - “We remain constructive on the consumer and their contribution to overall economic growth. Fundamentals for sustained, solid consumer spending remain sound, including healthy hiring gains, low unemployment and firming wages. Assuming the labor market remains healthy, as we expect, consumer spending growth should be solid in the quarters ahead.”

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -0.60 or less, the pair may go up reaching a range of 15-pips in the first 15-minutes and 54-pips in the following 4-hours. Alternatively, the reaction to a higher than expected reading, with a relative deviation of 0.52 or higher could be in the range of 16-pips in the first 15-minutes and 50-pips in the following 4-hours. 

How could it affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels for trading the major – “Initial support awaits at 1.2770 which has supported EUR/USD today and on Thursday. It is followed by 1.1250, which was a stepping stone on the way up last week. The next lines are 1.1220 that capped it in late May and the post-ECB low of 1.1200.”

“Some resistance awaits at 1.1290 that was a support line last week and today's high. 1.1310 was a swing high in early June, and 1.1348 is the highest level since March,” he added further.

Key Notes

   •  US Retail Sales Preview: Return to spender

   •  EUR/USD Forecast: Trending lower and at the mercy of the US consumer

   •  EUR/USD Technical Analysis: The pair is eroding the multi-month support line in the 1.1280 area

About US retail sales

The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD: risk-off taking over on trade war escalation

The American Dollar sold off Friday, following US President Trump´s anger discharge on Twitter. The pair soared to 1.1152, its highest for the week, to finally settle at around 1.1140.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD: Johnson and Tusk engaged in the blame-game

The GBP/USD pair flirted with the 1.2300 figure late Friday, ending the week with substantial gains around 1.2280, backed by Brexit hopes and the dollar’s broad weakness.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: lower lows at sight on the run to safety

The USD/JPY pair sunk Friday, following US President Trump’s fury with China and Fed’s head Powell, as the market rushed into safety. US yield curve inverted again, fears of recession rule.

USD/JPY News

Gold gains more than $30, eyes 2019 highs on Trump’s tweet

Gold continues to rise sharply amid concerns about the impact of the escalation in the US-China trade war. The demand for safe-haven assets emerged over the last hours, leading to a rally in the yellow metal. 

Gold News

Powell powerless against Trump's trade wars – US braces for recession, USD set to move

"The most powerful central banker in the world" – is how we and others characterize Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While that may be true – monetary policy is reaching its limits – especially in the face of a trade war.

Read more

MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures


  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •