US monthly retail sales overview
Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of monthly retail sales figures for the month of April, scheduled at 12:30 GMT. Following the previous month's stellar growth, consensus estimates point to a sharp deceleration during the reported month. The headline sales are predicted to rise a modest 0.2% on a monthly basis, down from March's reading of 1.6%, and sales excluding automobiles are seen climbing 0.7% as against 1.2% increase recorded in the previous month. Meanwhile, the growth for the closely watched Retail Sales Control Group is also expected to decelerate to 0.4%, down from a 1.0% increase in March.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction in case of a relative deviation of -0.60 or less, the pair may go up reaching a range of 15-pips in the first 15-minutes and 54-pips in the following 4-hours. Alternatively, the reaction to a higher than expected reading, with a relative deviation of 0.52 or higher could be in the range of 16-pips in the first 15-minutes and 50-pips in the following 4-hours.
How could it affect EUR/USD?
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers important technical levels for trading the major, “support awaits at 1.1166 which is the confluence of the Fibonacci 23.6% one-month, previous weekly low, and the PP 1d-S2. If EUR/USD extends its fall, 1.1115 is the net target. It is the convergence of the PP 1m-S1, the previous monthly low, and the Fibonacci 161.8% one-week.”
He further adds, “euro/dollar faces stiff resistance at 1.1219 which is a dense cluster of lines including the Simple Moving Average 5-1d, the SMA 100-15m, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day, the Fibonacci 38.2% one-week, the SMA 10-4h, the SMA 100-1h, and more. If it breaks higher, it faces many caps on its way up and the potential upside target is 1.1330 where the Pivot Point one-month Resistance 1, the previous monthly high, and the SMA 100-1d converge.”
Key Notes
• US Retail Sales Preview: Labor Market Rules
• EUR/USD Forecast: The thrill is gone and looking vulnerable ahead of critical data
• EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Room for a deeper retracement. Targets monthly lows near 1.1130
About US retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
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