When are the UK retail sales and how could they affect GBP/USD?

UK retail sales Overview

The UK retail sales, scheduled to be published later this session at 0830 GMT, are expected to drop 0.3% m/m in June, following a -0.5% figure seen in May. Total retail sales are seen arriving at 2.6% over the year in the reported month, up from 2.3% booked previously.

Meanwhile, core retail sales, stripping the basket off motor fuel sales, are seen declining 0.2% m/m while rising 2.7% y/y.

Deviation impact on GBP/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 3.5 to -1.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 100 pips.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

FXStreet’s Analyst Haresh Menghani notes: “From a technical perspective, the pair managed to attract some buying near the lower end of a four-month-old descending trend-channel, which should now act as a key pivotal point for the pair’s next leg of a directional move. In the meantime, the 1.2400 round figure mark now seems to act as immediate support and any subsequent slide might continue to attract some dip buying near the mentioned support, currently near the 1.2370-60 region.”

“On the flip side, immediate resistance now awaits near the key 1.2500 psychological mark, above which the momentum could further get extended back towards weekly tops, around the 1.2575-80 supply zone, with some intermediate resistance near the 1.2520-25 region,” Haresh adds.

Key Notes

UK: Retail sales in focus - TDS

GBP/USD remains within a ‘negative phase’ – UOB

Pound could fall to parity vs. USD on hard Brexit concerns - Morgan Stanley

About the UK retail sales

The retail sales released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.