German retail sales overview
Germany's retail sales data for February, scheduled for release at 07:00 GMT, is expected to show the private consumption dropped 0.9
percent month-on-month, following a 3.3 percent rise in January. The annualized figure is seen ticking higher to 2.8 percent from 2.6
percent.
A below-forecast print could spell trouble for the EUR
Germany's export-driven economy has slowed down considerably over the last six months, courtesy of trade tensions and weak global
demand conditions. Notably, its economic performance in 2018 was the weakest in five years and the first three months of 2019 have
offered little relief.
The European Central Bank (ECB) responded by adopting a dovish stance earlier this month. While the bank pushed out rate hike plans to 2020, the markets are increasingly speculating that the central bank will have to do away with tightening plans and cut interest rates again. That is evident from the German 10-year yield's recent drop below zero (the first since 2016).
The rate cut expectations would be reinforced if domestic consumption in Germany fails to compensate for the weakness in the external
sector.
Hence, EUR/USD will likely drop to recent lows near 1.1170, if the German retail sales print below estimates. An above-forecast number
may alleviate bearish pressures around the shared currency, although the technical bias will remain bearish while the pair is held below the downward sloping 10-day moving average (MA), currently at, 1.1304.
It is worth noting that Germany's import price index will also hit the wires at 07:00 GMT, but could be overshadowed by the retail sales figure.
About German retail sales
The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth usually anticipates "Bullish" for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.
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