When are the Canadian retail sales and how could they affect USD/CAD?

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Canadian retail sales overview

Statistics Canada will publish the monthly retail sales report for the month of June later this Friday at 12:30 GMT. Consensus estimates point to yet another weaker reading in the headlines sales, which is anticipated to show a 0.1% fall for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, core sales - excluding automobiles, is expected to remain flat on a monthly basis as against the previous month's decline of 0.3%.

Deviation impact on USD/CAD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to be in the range of 38-43 pips in case of deviations up to +0.38 to -0.58, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 73-76 pips in the subsequent 4-hours.

How could it affect USD/CAD?

Omkar Godbole, FXStreet's own technical analyst offered his take on the USD/CAD pair and explained – “The outlook remains neutral as the pair is still trapped in an ascending triangle as seen on the 4-hour chart. Meanwhile, the triangle breakdown would imply n end of the rally from the July 19 low of 1.3016.”

“As of writing, the upper edge of the ascending triangle is located at 1.3345 and the support is seen a 1.3269. The breakout could happen later today if Federal Reserve's President Powell again dashes hopes of an aggressive easing in the near-term,” he added further.

Key Notes

•  USD/CAD Intraday: the upside prevails

•  USD/CAD holds comfortably above 1.3300 handle

•  USD/CAD neutral below 1.3340 strong resistance

About Canadian retail sales

The Retail Sales released by Statistics Canada is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the CAD.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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