When are the Canadian Retail Sales and how could they affect USD/CAD?

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Canadian Retail Sales overview

Statistics Canada will publish the monthly retail sales report for the month of May later this Friday at 12:30 GMT.

The consensus forecast point to a minor acceleration in the headline sales, which is expected to show a 0.3% growth as compared to the previous month's +0.1%. Meanwhile, growth in the core sales - excluding automobiles, is also seen higher by 0.4% during the reported month as against +0.1% previous.

Deviation impact on USD/CAD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to be in the range of 38-43 pips in case of deviations up to +0.38 to -0.58, although in some cases, if notable enough, can fuel movements of up to 73-76 pips in the subsequent 4-hours.

How could it affect USD/CAD?

From a technical perspective, “considering the pair’s repeated failure to slip beneath 1.3000 round-figure, chances of its pullback to 1.3100 seem brighter on the break of February month low surrounding 1.3070.

However, a downside break of 1.3000 may fetch the quote to 1.2970 and 1.2915 numbers to the south,” FXStreet’s own Analyst, Anil Panchal, noted.

Key Notes

USD/CAD: Upside still capped by 1.3050 amid firmer Oil, ahead of data

USD/CAD Analysis: Sell signals today

About Canadian Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by Statistics Canada is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Generally speaking, the positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the CAD.

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.