When are the Australian CPIs and how could they affect the AUD/USD?

Australian CPI overview

Early on Wednesday at 01:30 GMT will see 2019's first quarter inflation data dump for the Australian economy, and the headline q/q CPI reading is expected to come in at 0.2% versus previous quarter's reading of +0.5%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) trimmed-mean CPI is also expected to arrive at 0.4%, steady from the previous period's 0.4%, while the annualized CPI is expected to show 1.7%, a soft decline from the previous 1.8%.

Ahead of the release, TD Securities said:

We expect 1.8% y/y for headline CPI (mkt +1.5%) and +1.75% for core (mkt 1.65% y/y). Tobacco, Housing and Health are the main contributors, the main drag from Transport (i.e. fuel (-10% q/q)) and Communication (-0.3% q/q). Annual core inflation at 1¾% y/y leaves the RBA on the sidelines but a significant downside miss (of around -½%pt) has been a trigger for a cut before (May 2016). Also released is skilled vacancies for March. This measure was solid, but dipped in February.

How could it affect the AUD/USD?

According to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik, weak inflation numbers could see the AUD/USD pair testing 0.7000 mark. She further adds:

The 4 hours chart shows that the pair broke below all of its moving averages, while the 20 SMA already crossed below the 100 SMA,   both some 40/50 pips above the current level. The Momentum indicator has pared its decline at its lowest in a month, while the RSI indicator maintains its downward strength, currently at 26, both supporting additional declines ahead, to be confirmed with a break below the 0.7050/60 price zone, where the pair has multiple intraday lows from last March.

Support levels:  0.7055 0.7020 0.6980

Resistance levels: 0.7115 0.7140 0.7170    

Key Notes

AUD/USD Analysis: weak inflation could see the pair testing 0.7000

AUD/USD remains close to 0.7100 support-line ahead of Australia inflation data

About the Australian CPI

The Consumer Price Index released by the RBA and republished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of AUD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends gains to 1.1200 on sliding US yields, weak data

EUR/USD is trading close to 1.1200, in the wake of the European session as US yields continue falling. The European Parliament elections are in play. US durable goods fell short of expectations with -2.1%. 


GBP/USD off the highs as May announces stepping down on June 7th

GBP/USD is trading below 1.2700 after a quick rise to the upside as UK PM Theresa May announced she will step down on June 7th with Boris Johnson set to take over.


USD/JPY extends slide and looks for a test of May’s low

The USD/JPY pair dropped further ahead of the London fix on the back of a decline of the US Dollar across the board and a pullback in equity prices. 


Gold: Bullish flag pattern spotted on 1-hourly chart

The lower end of the descending trend-channel coincides with 200-hour EMA support and should act as a key pivotal point for intraday traders. 

Gold News

The market may surprise on the upside in the next few hours with BTC/USD topping $8,250

We reach the end of a week can be characterized as a week of transition. After the strongly bullish days of the beginning of the month, cryptos have reached critical levels of resistance...

Read more