Economists at TD Securities forecast the Lira to depreciate substantially over the course of the last quarter of the year and the start of 2023.
There could be scope for a TRY rally in H2 2023
“TRY will not find support in CBRT's expansive policy (and deeply negative real rates) and the sharply deteriorating current account deficit.”
“The macro trends, global risks and policy missteps are likely to trigger a currency crisis in 22Q4 or 23Q1.”
“We expect USDTRY to leapfrog to 27 or higher before emergency hikes stabilize the lira.”
“With a crucial election by June 2023 and the possible ousting of Erdogan, there could be scope for a TRY rally in H2 2023. This is entirely predicated on Erdogan and the AKP losing the vote and conceding to the opposition.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds positive ground above 1.0750 ahead of Eurozone PMI, PPI data
EUR/USD trades in positive territory for the fourth consecutive day near 1.0765 during the early Monday. The softer US Dollar provides some support to the major pair. Traders await the HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany and the Eurozone, along with the Eurozone PPI.
GBP/USD rises to near 1.2550 due to dovish sentiment surrounding Fed
GBP/USD continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.2550 during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The appreciation of the pair could be attributed to the recalibrated expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2024 following the release of lower-than-expected US jobs data.
Gold price rebounds on downbeat NFP data, softer US Dollar
Gold price snaps the two-day losing streak during the Asian session on Monday. The weaker-than-expected US employment reports have boosted the odds of a September rate cut from the US Federal Reserve. This, in turn, has dragged the US Dollar lower and lifted the USD-denominated gold.
Bitcoin Cash could become a Cardano partnerchain as 66% of 11.3K voters say “Aye”
Bitcoin Cash is the current mania in the Cardano ecosystem following a proposal by the network’s executive inviting the public to vote on X, about a possible integration.
Week ahead: BoE and RBA decisions headline a calm week
Bank of England meets on Thursday, unlikely to signal rate cuts. Reserve Bank of Australia could maintain a higher-for-longer stance. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions.