USDJPY Price Analysis: Bulls trying to defend over a one-week-old ascending trend-line

The USDJPY pair struggles to capitalize on its modest intraday gains to the 147.55 area and turns lower for the second successive day on Monday. The downward trajectory drags spot prices back below pivotal support near the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, with bears now awaiting a break below the 146.00 mark before placing fresh bets.

The US Dollar adds to the post-NonFarm Payrolls heavy losses and drops to over a one-week low amid speculations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its rate-hiking cycle. Apart from this, expectations that Japanese authorities might intervene again to soften any steep fall in the domestic currency exert some downward pressure on the USDJPY pair.

That said, the risk-on impulse might keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the safe-haven JPY and help limit deeper losses. This, along with a big divergence in the monetary policy stance adopted by the Fed and the Bank of Japan, supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the USDJPY pair, warranting caution for bearish traders.

From a technical perspective, the 146.00 round figure coincides with a one-and-half-week-old ascending trend-line support. Some follow-through fall might prompt aggressive technical selling and make the USDJPY pair vulnerable. The subsequent fall has the potential to drag spot prices towards the late October low, around the 145.00 psychological mark.

On the flip side, the 146.80 region now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 147.00 level. Any further move up might continue to confront stiff resistance near the daily top, around the 147.55 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter could allow the USDJPY pair to reclaim the 148.00 mark and test the 148.35-148.45 supply zone.

USDJPY 4-hour chart

Key levels to watch