USD/TRY should eventually break below 7.40, if CBRT does not disappoint – Rabobank

Matías Salord FXStreet

According to analysts from Rabobank, the Turkish lira could continue to recover ground versus the US dollar. They see that if the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) delivers an expected rate hike next week, USD/TRY could slide further to 7.26/23.

Key Quotes:

“Bullish momentum carried USD/TRY to the all-time high at 8.5793 set on November 6 from around 5.90 at the beginning of 2020. While there was a relatively modest correction in May and a period of stabilisation in June-July, the underlying bullish trend remained intact as sentiment towards the lira did not change.”

“The initial leg lower may extend to around 7.40 where the upside trendline (from the January low) and the horizontal trendline converge offering USD/TRY a potentially solid support. For a break lower the market may have to wait until the CBRT delivers a proper rate hike next week. Assuming that the central bank does not disappoint, USD/TRY should eventually break below 7.40 towards the next important cluster of technical levels at 7.26/23. At this stage the 61.8% retracement at 6.45 is a very ambitious target, but it is important to note that USD/TRY has the history of sharp moves lower.”

Author

Matías Salord

FXStreet

Matías started in financial markets in 2008, after graduating in Economics. He was trained in chart analysis and then became an educator. He also studied Journalism. He started writing analyses for specialized websites before joining FXStreet.

GBP/USD: Downward-sloping trendline near 1.3470 remains key barrier

The British pound faces selling pressure against its major currency peers, trading 0.1% lower at around 1.3420 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

Euro clings to the bid bias above 1.1500

EUR/USD has picked up pace, reversing Monday’s decline and advancing past the 1.1500 barrier on Tuesday. In the meantime, hopes for a diplomatic solution to the Middle East crisis keep the US Dollar under modest downside pressure, helping spot in its recovery.

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index extends historical negative streak as risk appetite deteriorates

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index extends its negative streak to 78 consecutive days on Tuesday, the longest on record. This reading comes amid the ongoing bearish trend, which has seen Bitcoin (BTC) drop by almost 50% from its record high to trade around $64,000.

Why the WTI sell-off may be hiding a supply warning

Prices for the barrel of the American Oil benchmark have fallen sharply as hopes of a US-Iran agreement have resurfaced, but a deeply backwardated Oil curve, tight Cushing stocks and light speculative positioning all warn that the sell-off may have gone too far.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.