USD/TRY recedes from 2022 highs just below 14.00

The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY.

USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains

USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless.

In the meantime, the lira remains under scrutiny amidst the current feeble outlook, which has been exacerbated after inflation figures recorded a 19-year peak beyond 36% in the year to December (Monday).

From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news.

What to look for around TRY

The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet.

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023.

USD/TRY key levels

So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level).