USD/TRY Price Analysis: Bears pause around seven-week low amid oversold RSI

USD/TRY seesaws in a narrow range after four-day downtrend.
Sustained break of key support lines, 100-DMA keeps sellers hopeful.
Bulls need a clear break of $8.4550 for fresh entry.
Turkish CPI for July may extend corrective pullback.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

USD/TRY treads water around $8.3563 amid early Tuesday. The Turkish lira (TRY) pair dropped to the lowest since June 14 after breaking ascending trend lines from late April and mid-February, as well as 100-DMA, the previous day.

However, oversold RSI conditions seem to probe the pair sellers around multi-day low, not to forget the pre-data caution. That said, Turkey is slated to release July month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 07:00 GMT on Tuesday. Market consensus favors softer prints of 1.54% on MoM versus firmer yearly figures of 18.5%.

Even if the data trigger the corrective pullback towards challenging the immediate hurdle, namely 100-DMA level of $8.3825, USD/TRY bulls remain unconvinced till the quote stays below a convergence of the previous support lines near $8.4550.

Following that, a descending resistance line from late June, near $8.5860, will be important to watch.

Meanwhile, sustained weakness could direct USD/TRY prices to June’s low of $8.2775 before the late April’s swing low near $8.1300 gain the market’s attention.

Overall, USD/TRY remains bearish ahead of the Turkish CPI data but RSI conditions may help the countertrend traders if economics weaken the TRY.

USD/TRY: Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

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